College hoops weekend betting preview: Big brands on display Saturday

There is no NFL this weekend (sorry Pro Bowl). What we do have is a fantastic Saturday of college hoops featuring the biggest brands in the sport - Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas and the defending champion Baylor Bears. 

The big boys are dominating Saturday while the Mountain West and AAC open and close the weekend with games worth watching.

Here is a look at the top games and some betting thoughts.

Friday, Feb. 4

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Colorado State Rams
9:00 PM ET
FS1
Projected Line: Rams -2

For a while there the Big Ten was owning Friday night, but now the Mountain West is making a claim. These are two of the top four teams in the league and with due respect to Boise State, who has not lost a conference game yet, the most talented. They are also polar opposites, too. San Diego State is second in the nation in defensive efficiency. They hound you all over the court and big man Nathan Mensah is great at protecting the rim. Meanwhile, Colorado State is in the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency. David Roddy is 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, and one of the toughest guards in America thanks to his ability to play inside and out. The Rams were red hot to start the season but have lost their last two games. They also lost when these teams met at SDSU, a game that was not competitive, 76-49. That makes them the undervalued side here. They only have to find enough offense to win by a bucket.

Take Colorado State. 

Saturday, Feb. 5

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Indiana Hoosiers
12:00 PM ET
Projected Line: Hoosiers -1

Illinois is at the top of the Big Ten right now. They have won three in a row and they are getting healthier, too, with returns of Kofi Cockburn and Andre Curbelo, two players who are All-American-level talents. With the way the team has played, even without those players, they are a major threat, in the conference and nationally. There is nothing more dangerous than a talented team with a great work ethic. Indiana has the top defensive efficiency numbers in the Big Ten this season, something that I don't think anyone saw coming when they dipped into the NBA pool for coach Mike Woodson. Illinois is second in the league defensively, though, and the more balanced team as a result so the Hoosiers are going to need a bump from the crowd to get this home win. I like the Illinois side. It is less of a fade of Indiana and more an acknowledgment of how the Illini are separating themselves right now. 

Take Illinois. 

Baylor Bears @ Kansas Jayhawks
4:00 PM ET
ESPN
Projected Line: Jayhawks -1

Most of the time, both of these programs have looked like the elite-level Final Four contenders we expected. There have been cracks, too, though, like Kansas getting trucked by Kentucky and Baylor's suffering back-to-back losses at home a few weeks back. Right now Kansas is the only team in the Big 12 with just one loss, so a home win puts them in the driver's seat for a regular-season title. It is too bad we are not getting these teams at full strength on Saturday. Kansas leading scorer Ochai Agbaji is in health and safety protocols and Baylor's Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer are both questionable for the game. I am still leaning to Baylor on the road, though. I love the way they play defense and in PG James Akinjo they have a crafty player with the ball in his hands a lot. 

Take Baylor

Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels
6:00PM ET
ESPN
Projected Line: Blue Devils -3

This is going to be Coach  K's last trip to Chapel Hill to coach against the North Carolina Tar Heels. Beyond that, there is not much to the storyline, though, because the Tar Heels have struggled to rise to the level of really good competition. UNC has won four in a row, but beating teams like Boston College and Louisville are not worth much this season. They have lost all three times they have played a team in the top 40 at KenPom and never been closer than nine points. They can physically match up with Duke, especially inside, but there definitely is a talent gap this season (and has been for some time). They are not going to get pushed around, but an upset does not seem to be in the making, even though the Blue Devils are missing a key piece with shooter Trevor Keels out. Paolo Banchero and Adrian Griffin of the Blue Devils are NBA lottery-level talents, with Banchero the possible top pick in the 2022 draft. North Carolina does not have a player like that on their roster. 

Take Duke. 

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
8:00 PM ET
ESPN
Projected Line: Wildcats -3

Kentucky dominated Kansas last Saturday. It was an important game that showed the potential of this team but meant nothing in the SEC. If the Wildcats are going to try and push Auburn at the top of the league, they have to keep winning and hope the Tigers struggle. Alabama just experienced the hurt the Tigers can put opponents losing midweek at Auburn 100-81. It is was not very confidence-inspiring, neither was Kentucky's seven-point home win over Vanderbilt. I generally love Alabama in underdog roles, and they are at home but I don't like them in this spot against a healthy Kentucky team. The Wildcats are so much smoother offensively this season, and that is what makes them a threat in any environment -- see Kansas. Alabama competes hard, but unless they start making their threes, Kentucky should get the win.

Take Kentucky

Sunday, Feb. 6

Houston Cougars vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
6:00 PM ET
ESPN2
Projected Line: Houston -7

The Sunday college hoops lineup is a little lighter than expected. It is too bad, too, with the NFL now with just one game to go and sports fans hungry for something to replace it. I love giving pub to Houston, though, as their narrative for this year is pretty amazing. They are perfect in the AAC despite playing most of their conference schedule without their two best players. They have had a couple of close calls but six of their eight wins have been by 10+ points. Speaking of close calls, their two losses, to Alabama and Wisconsin, are by just three points combined. It is hard to find a more cohesive team than Houston, and that is why there is a lot to like about the Cougars against the Bearcats. Coach Wes Miller is doing a nice job in his first season in Cincinnati, but losses to Temple, Tulane and Monmouth show how this team struggles with consistency. Two months ago , Cincinnati played its best game of the season and dealt a loss to Illinois, a performance they have not come close to repeating. Stick with the side you can trust, even on the road. 

Take Houston