College hoops weekend betting preview: Mountain West, SEC-Big 12 and Big Ten battles

With another week down, we are inching closer and closer to March Madness. Last weekend we saw that Auburn was more than ready for its closeup, beating Kentucky at home. The reward, their first ranking atop the AP Poll. In typical college hoops fashion, the Tigers followed that up by winning at Mizzou by just a point. 

From this past week, we thought we were going to get a great game with UCLA hosting Arizona. Alas, UCLA played its best game of the season and dispatched the Wildcats in impressive fashion. If you like the Bruins, then your response was: Finally! I am not worried too much about Arizona though. The resume might be a little light, but the Wildcats have an NBA-level front line and shot so bad that the game was an outlier. If they lose to UCLA in a similar fashion at home next week maybe there is some real reason for concern. 

This weekend we are easing in to action on Friday, a night where the best game is in the Mountain West Conference. Saturday is a big day of the weekend, and then on Sunday, we have a nice Big Ten appetizer before we commit to the NFL for the rest of the day.

Friday, Jan. 28

Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
11 p.m. ET
Projected line: Fresno State -2

The Mountain West is better than you think this season with more than half of the league ranked in the top 60 at KenPom. Boise State last lost on Nov. 30 and has been an amazing story. This team lost a home game to Cal-Bakersfield but is currently riding a 13-game winning streak, including a home win over Fresno State by 10 points. The Broncos have been elite defensively, and that should have them in this game against the Bulldogs late on Friday. Fresno State is strong on defense too, and this one is likely decided late. I am willing to make a small lean toward Boise State and hope we can get a full three points or more by tipoff. This one feels like a coin flip so taking the points makes the most sense. 

Take Boise State. 

Saturday, Jan. 29

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
6 p.m. ET
Projected line: Kansas -3

This is SEC/Big 12 Challenge Weekend, and this matchup of blue blood programs is the best we get...thank you! Kentucky lost last week at Auburn with the game turning when freshman guard TyTy Washington left the game due to injury. Kentucky has more than enough talent to beat anyone in the country without him, but the Wildcats are underdogs on the road once again. It is tempting to make that a high-value play because of their talent base, but Kansas is elite too. This is going to be a heavyweight fight where the Jayhawks can counter everything the Wildcats have and then some. This month Kansas has shown it can win the close games too, not just the blowouts. Kentucky has not. Also, Kentucky is 0-3 straigh up against the spread as an underdog this season. 

Take Kansas. 

Baylor Bears vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
4 p.m. ET
Projected line:  Baylor -5

Alabama has to have the weirdest resume in all of college hoops right now. Way back when the Tide beat Gonzaga and Houston in back-to-back games, but in their last game, they lost to Georgia, the worst team in the SEC by a mile. It was a road game, but that kind of variance is impossible to ignore. The Crimson Tide do have just one home loss on the season though, to top-ranked Auburn by four points, so there is no doubt they can compete at the highest level — it's just that their consistency is maddening. As for Baylor, I am not quite sure the Bears have righted the ship after those two home losses they suffered after getting to the top of the rankings, but they have won their last three games by nine, 14 and 25 points. Their best game is as good as any in the country. The question is whether they need it this weekend. They have to be the play, even on the road. 

Take Baylor.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Texas Longhorns
8 p.m. ET
Projected line:  Texas -3

This is a matchup of highly rated teams, but look away if you actually enjoy watching basketball. These programs are super defensive-minded. There is nothing wrong with that, but no matter the opponent, their offenses have been frustrating. Some nights it looks like they don't even practice shooting and passing. Texas lost a home game to Kansas State last week so another home loss to the Vols is definitely possible. The Longhorns' best win of the season is against Oklahoma. Tennessee has better wins, including delivering Arizona its only loss before this week, but all of those victories have come at home. This one is a really tough call, but I am leaning to the home side. Darn me for Orange being my favorite color. There is going to be a lot on display on Saturday night.

Take Texas. 

Sunday, Jan. 30

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers
12 p.m. ET
Projected line:  Purdue -9

Purdue is fifth in the Big Ten standings but sixth at KenPom — go figure. It is hard not to fall in love with the talent of the Boilermakers, a team with more quality size than anyone in the country. Plus, Jaden Ivey might be the best guard in America. Their three losses on the season have all been in the league and all by five points or less. Ohio State is one of the teams ahead of the Boilermakers in the standings and a quality team for sure. The Buckeyes beat Duke at home, remember. They have struggled away from Value City Arena though. Their only league win on the road was at Nebraska, and they needed overtime in that one. It is hard to see them finding their best game on Sunday to put a scare in the Boilermakers, especially with the way they are undersized inside.

Take Purdue.