College hoops weekend preview: Games to watch and bet

College football has been done for a couple of weeks so it is time to settle in and enjoy the wonder that is college hoops for the next two months. At this stage of the season, teams are working through their conference schedules, where truly anything can happen.

For example, last week Baylor, the top-ranked team in the AP Poll, lost twice — at home — something that has never happened before. 

This weekend we are loaded with important matchups from coast to coast. Here is a look at some games happening Friday, Saturday and Sunday that caught my eye. No odds are posted yet, but the KenPom lines give us a great idea as to what they will be. They are all short numbers too, which means games could go either way, and there is great value with teams not needing to dominate to cover. 

Friday

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Projected line (Badgers -3)

I love the Big Ten for giving us actual good games on a Friday night, and this should be a really good one. Wisconsin has been one of the positive surprise teams of the season thanks to guard Johnny Davis taking off. The Badgers have ridden their backcourt to great success, and a Big Ten title is not beyond the realm of possibility. Michigan State has the reputation and the Hall of Fame coach in Tom Izzo, but this is not a particularly talented Spartans team. There just isn't an obvious guy the Spartans can lean on for points when they need them. The defense is solid, and that will keep them in the game, but Wisconsin is the play at home. All the way up to -5 if you have to.

Take Wisconsin -3

Saturday

Kentucky vs. Auburn
Projected line (Tigers -3)

These are the two best teams in the SEC. Kentucky started the season looking like the top team, but the Tigers have definitely passed the Wildcats with their on-court performance so far. The Wildcats have some interesting results. Prior to their last game against Texas A&M, they had either lost the game or won by double digits, nothing in between. Their dominating win against Tennessee last weekend was impressive. For Auburn, the Tigers have only one loss this season, and it came in double-overtime. They continue get better, as their top two players are guys who were not in the program last year in freshman forward Jabari Smith and transfer center Walker Kessler. This Auburn team is no fluke. Both of those guys are NBA talents, and the guys around them have bought in to coach Bruce Pearl's system. Either team could win this one, but it is hard not to like the home side. 

Take Auburn -3

LSU vs. Tennessee
Projected line (Tigers -1)

Who would have thought we would feature two SEC matchups on a Saturday and not be talking about football? LSU ran out to a 12-0 start and is a good team, but the Tigers' 3-3 record since is more their level: good but not elite. The may be even very good, as they have nice wins and acceptable losses. For better or worse, they are getting a Tennessee team looking to show it can compete with the best teams in the country. The Volunteers have five losses, but all are to teams in the top 16 at KenPom, including a road loss against LSU. They have not always been competitive in those games though, including a 12-point loss to the Tigers. The Vols are consistently frustrating, and their top player is a freshman (PG Kennedy Chandler) so they can have wild swings in their play. I am leaning to LSU completing the sweep, though this game should be closer than the last time they met. 

Take LSU -1 (playable to -2.5)

Sunday

Xavier vs. Marquette
Projected line (Musketeers -1)

Marquette has been doing some impressive work of late. The Golden Eagles began Big East play with three losses but since then have won five in a row, most notably beating Seton Hall and Villanova in their last two games. Coach Shaka Smart is known for his HAVOC defense, and the Golden Eagles are strong on that side of the ball. They are not quite where he had his VCU teams, but they are getting there. This one is a tough call because Xavier has been very consistent this season. The Musketeers' only Big East losses are to Villanova, and they knocked off Marquette. They won by nine at home in that one, and while I like what is building in Milwaukee, I think the smart play is to back the Musketeers, especially only needing them to win at this projected line. 

Take Xavier -1 (playable to -2.5)

Michigan vs. Indiana
Projected line (Hoosiers -3)

All season long we have been asking the question: What is the level of Michigan? The Wolverines have made clear they are not a top team but avoided dropping under .500 by beating Maryland in their last game. Indiana has a much better record, but I am worried about the Hoosiers getting beat up by Purdue on Thursday night and that having a carryover effect to this game. Trayce Jackson-Davis of the Hoosiers is the best player on either side, but these teams are pretty comparable talent-wise. Michigan has burned backers so many times, but I still like the Wolverines, finally getting some points in situations like these. Maybe things are on an upswing, and this is a winnable game. 

Take Michigan +3