Duke basketball head coach Jon Scheyer Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Duke Basketball 'Under-Seeded' Despite Projected Top Seed

Originally posted on Duke Blue Devils on SI
By Matt Giles | Last updated Feb 28, 2025 2:52 PM ET

Third-year head coach Jon Scheyer and his Duke basketball squad rank No. 2 in the AP Top 25 Poll and are averaging 21.6 more points per game than their opponents. With three games left on their conference slate, the Blue Devils (25-3, 16-1 ACC) already hold the record for the most ACC regular season wins by 20-plus points (eight).

On Friday afternoon, college hoops analytics guru Evan Miyakawa posted a graphic in which Duke's dominance this season breaks the formula, standing out as an outlier.

Based on the latest NCAA Tournament projections, Miyakawa compared all 68 teams' seed to their efficiency rating. And as it turns out, according to his calculations, the Blue Devils are one of the most "under-seeded" squads despite sitting on the top seed line:

Here is every team's efficiency rating at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax compared to their current seed based on recent bracketology.

Teams labeled as "under-seeded" are much stronger than typical for their seed and advance 59% further in the bracket historically pic.twitter.com/jSX6cuogXg
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 28, 2025

Duke basketball, riding a five-game winning streak and with only one loss in the past three months, is now gearing up for its first March contest this year.

Fresh off Tuesday night's 97-60 road win over the lowly Miami Hurricanes, the Blue Devils host the Florida State Seminoles (16-12, 7-10 ACC) at 7 p.m. ET Saturday (ACC Network), the first of back-to-back Duke outings in the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium.