Yes, both teams have tremendous offenses.
Houston might not unleash the firepower more than it has to, but it’s efficient, there aren’t a ton of turnovers, and no one in America is better from three.
Obviously Duke is incredible on offense with one of the nation’s most efficient scoring pops averaging close to 84 points per game.
These two got here on defense.
The Cougars clamped down instantly in the dominant 69-50 win over Tennessee and rode out the lead from there. Duke the supposedly unstoppable Alabama attack to just 65 points - and most of those came when the game was effectively over.
Even so, it’s a contrast of styles. The Blue Devils want to play in the 80s, the Cougars want to play in the 60s, and both should adapt in a likely thriller.
Date: Saturday, April 5
Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Time: COMING
TV: CBS
Teams: (1) Houston (34-4), (1) Duke (35-3)
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews
Defense, defense, defense.
The Cougars get a week to rest up figure out how to take out the Duke perimeter. It’s a huge Blue Devil team - more on that in a moment - but Job One is to push around Cooper Flagg and keep him from getting a good look. Job Two is to hold up on the inside.
Job Three is to hope the Blue Devils just aren’t hitting their shots.
Few teams move the ball around as well or as effectively as the Blue Devils, but the No. 1 Cougar scoring defense knows how to make offenses uncomfortable. No one is more active, and no one does a better job of challenging absolutely everything.
And again, Houston has an offense. It doesn’t take a ton of threes, but it’s No. 1 in the nation at hitting them. This bunch can run well when needed, lives on attacking the offensive glass, and Duke has to match the energy and intensity for a full 40 minutes. However …
SIZE.
Houston makes up for its lack of height by incredible quickness, athleticism, and positioning, but the regular deep rotation averages around 6-4. Duke doesn’t play a guy under 6-5.
How did Duke stop Alabama? It’s easy - send your NBA lottery picks to handle the perimeter and guide everyone inside to deal with 7-2 Khaman Maluach, 6-11 Patrick Ngongba, and the rest of the team’s bulk.
The Tide lived off of bulk threes, and they only hit eight of 32 tries. Houston will at least get challenged more than normal from the outside, and it won’t come up with enough rebounds to get the second-change points needed.
Alabama led the nation in offensive boards and got ten - it didn’t matter.
Houston has the hard-nosed style to give everyone problems, and it won’t be easy for Duke to go on big runs or get anything easy offensively, but Jon Scheyer’s bunch is too big, too talented, and too deep.
It’ll be more methodical than amazing, but once again, everyone will come for the Duke O, and the Duke D will get this done.
Prediction: Duke 74, Houston 66
Duke vs Houston Betting Lines
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ATS Confidence out of 5: COMING
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