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ESPN BPI Predicts Which No. 1 Seed Will Win National Championship

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Spencer Ostrow | Last updated Apr 3, 2025 6:55 AM ET

The NCAA Tournament's Final Four is here, and for the first time since 2008, it will feature all No. 1 seeds. Ironically enough, that Tournament in 2008 was also hosted in San Antonio.

The Florida Gators, Auburn Tigers, Houston Cougars, and Duke Blue Devils have been well above the rest this college basketball season, and the numbers back it up.

Each team ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Additionally, all four boast an overall rating above 35.28, placing them among the top 10 highest-rated teams of all time.

Fans are in for a must-watch Final Four, and before the games, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) computer ratings updated. After every single college basketball game this season, teams flipped-flopped in the rankings to reflect how good they are, not only based on record but strength of schedule-wise, how efficient they are, where they played each game and more.

The BPI also shows each team's chance at winning the national championship, and at the top of the list is Duke with a 35.2% chance to do so.

The Blue Devils are led by projected No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg. While he tops the team in all five major statistical categories, he’s far from their only threat. Duke also has players like Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor, Sion James, Khaman Maluach, and more.

The Blue Devils have elite guard play and great length, and their 35-3 season record is indicative of that.

Here’s how the BPI projects the title odds for the remaining Final Four teams.