Gonzaga climbs way-too-early NCAA Tournament bracketology projections

The transfer portal has hit a lull and college coaches are more focused on the recruiting trails than anything else it seems, but none of that has stopped ESPN's Joe Lunardi from adjusting his forecast of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Lunardi has moved Gonzaga up the seeding chart following the Bulldogs' acquisition of Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster. The 6-foot-7 forward's decision to join Mark Few and the Zags in late May has been regarded as one of the biggest offseason moves since Lunardi's last bracketology update, and one that's helped Gonzaga leapfrog its way from the 6-seed line to the 5-seed line in ESPN's latest projections.

If Lunardi's predictions came to fruition, then the Bulldogs' 27th-straight NCAA Tournament appearance would begin with a trip down to Tampa Bay for a first-round matchup against 12-seed Liberty from Conference USA. The winner would take on either No. 4-seed Auburn or 13-seed High Point for a chance to play in the Sweet 16, likely against the South Region's top-seeded Purdue.

Gonzaga is the only West Coast Conference team represented in Lunardi's hypothetical 68-team field for next season. Every at-large bid (65) is slated to go to a power conference team, according to Lunardi, leaving absolutely no room for any mid-major to sneak in without earning an automatic bid. The SEC leads the way with 14 projected bids after setting the NCAA Tournament record with 14 bids in 2024-25. The Big Ten is projected to have 11 bids next season while the Big 12 sits at a projected eight bids.

Outside of league play, Gonzaga should have ample opportunities to build its postseason resume with an assortment of marquee nonconference games in November and December. Five of the Zags' six confirmed nonleague opponents for 2025-26 are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, including Kentucky (3-seed), UCLA (4-seed), Oklahoma (8-seed), Baylor (9-seed) and Creighton (9-seed). Thirteen of the 18 teams participating in the Players Era Festival — including Gonzaga — are seeded in Lunardi's bracket.

Florida checks in as the No. 1 overall seed, with Duke, Houston and Purdue rounding out the rest of the top seeds.

Adding Grant-Foster to the mix has certainly been the biggest splash of the offseason for Few and company. The Kansas City native has had moments over the past two seasons where he's looked like one of the best players in the country, like when he put up 20.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.5 blocks per game with the Antelopes during the 2023-24 campaign.

Grant-Foster, who turned 25 in March, is the second commit of Gonzaga’s incoming transfer class, joining former Arizona State guard Adam Miller.