Houston basketball: 1 fatal flaw that could ruin Cougars’ Final Four hopes

For years, the knock on this Houston Cougars basketball team — regardless of how dominant it was — did not play in a good enough conference. Despite the lack of quality competition in the AAC, the Cougars managed to make the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final over its last three seasons in the conference.

Now, in its first season in the Big 12, college basketball’s elite conference, Kelvin Sampson’s team is proving that any concerns around the Cougars were unwarranted. Houston is once again the best defensive team in the country, second in the AP Poll, and sitting at the top of the Big 12. And in an era of transfers. one-and-dones and high-flying offenses, Sampson has a team based on continuity, veteran leadership, and stout defense.

The Cougars made the Final Four in 2021 and are once again a serious national championship contender this season. While Houston is one of the best teams in the country, this fatal flaw could hold the Cougars back from a second Final Four appearance.

Poor shot selection (and shot-making)

In an era where analytics and smart shot selection are key variables for winning basketball games, Houston is seemingly moving in the opposite direction offensively. The Cougars are second in the nation in mid-range attempt rate, averaging 35 mid-range field goal attempts per game against the average opponent according to Haslametrics (38% of attempts). The other four teams that rank in the top five in mid-range attempt rate are all 310th or lower in the NET Rankings.

As if Houston’s high mid-range attempt rate was not enough, Kelvin Sampson’s team shoots just 37% on these attempts — 287th in the country. Both Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer have taken more than 100 two-point shots this season, with each shooting around 40%. Analytics website Shot Quality also puts the Cougs at 351st in the country in rim-and-three rate and 292nd in near-proximity rate. This low rate is surprising considering that the Cougars are 11th in the country in shooting accuracy on close twos.

A high mid-range attempt rate does not preclude a team from being successful in the NCAA Tournament. Houston and UCLA were both Final Four teams in 2020-21 despite ranking in the top 20 in mid-range attempt rate. UCLA shot 46% from mid-range that year with 40% of its shot coming from that distance. The Bruins upped that rate to 45% in the NCAA Tournament. This may work for some teams, but from an efficiency standpoint, mid-range attempts are the least efficient shot. The Cougars shooting 40% from mid-range is worth the same points per possession as hitting 26.7% of three-point attempts. All but three teams in the country shooting better than 26.7% from three this year.

While Houston is not a great three-point shooting team, its 34.4 3P% is more efficient than even shooting 50% from mid-range. The Cougars have plenty of shot-creators, as evidenced by their low assist rate (235th in the country) and high mid-range attempt rate, but this team is just 234th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Houston has been able to make up for this deficiency by ranking in the top ten in offensive rebounding to go with its smothering defense. But at some point in the NCAA Tournament, it will have to demonstrate shot-making prowess.

Given the inefficiency of this offense, a pre-Final Four exit is a distinct possibility for this Houston Cougars team.