Houston vs Illinois Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Houston vs Illinois Game Preview: The Game You Have To Stay Awake For

Houston vs Illinois How To Watch

Date: Thursday, March 26
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Time: 10:05 pm ET
TV: TBS/truTV
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (2) Houston 30-6, (3) Illinois 26-8
Football Series History: 1-1
Houston won 31-13 in 1992
Illinois won 51-10 in 1991

NCAA Tournament So Far
- Houston: 1st Round Idaho 78-47, 2nd Round Texas A&M 88-57

- Illinois: 1st Round Penn 105-70, 2nd Round VCU 76-55

- CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews

Key Stats

- Houston outrebounded Texas A&M 46 to 29 in the second round win.

- Illinois outrebounded VCU 45 to 29 in the second round win.

Why Illinois Will Win: Hit Threes, Go to the Elite Eight

The Houston defense is suffocating, and it was able to stop Texas A&M and Idaho, who could both hit threes.

Illinois is different, though, because it takes threes and doesn’t stop taking them.

The Illini lost a thriller against Wisconsin in overtime back in early February. That was the lone defeat in a 16-1 run when they hit 45% or better from the outside, but they might not have to even be that good.

The Cougars are 2-4 when teams hit 40% or better, and Illinois has only been under the mark four times this season.

Why Houston Will Win: The Cougar Backcourt Will Take Over

No team turns it over less than Houston. It’s No. 1 in the nation, giving it up just over eight times per game, and it won’t lose that many to an Illinois team that’s among the worst in the country at forcing mistakes.

No, the Cougars won’t slow the tempo and game down, but they don’t like to run. They like to control the tempo and lock down past halfcourt, not leaving any of the Illini outside shooters open.

And that fits perfectly. Few teams in America get out on the break less than Illinois does - this is a bad matchup for the Illini, but …

Houston vs Illinois Prediction, Betting Lines

The Illinois size will start to play a role late in the very, very late game that will end well past midnight on the east coast.

Houston is in its home city, and the energy will be there throughout, but Chris Cenac is the only main player over 6-7, and tough guy Joseph Tugler is the only other key guy over 6-4.

Among the top seven parts of the Illinois rotation, only 6-2 guard Kyle Boswell is small, and he can hit the boards, too.

The team will handle itself on the boards - Texas A&M and Idaho got destroyed on the glass against Houston - and it’ll hit enough threes to overcome the struggles to get to the rim.

The Cougars are decent in rebounding margin, but they’re -23 in the five losses.

Illinois is 0-7 when allowing more than 82 points, and 26-1 - the lone loss to UConn way back on Thanksgiving weekend - when giving up that many or fewer. Houston has only gone over 82 seven times.

Prediction: Illinois 74, Houston 73
Consensus Line: Houston -3.5, o/u: 139.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.