Idaho vs. Houston — Round of 64 March Madness Preview

OKLAHOMA CITY, Okla. — In the final Thursday matchup of the Round of 64 in the South Region, No. 2 seed Houston meets No. 15 seed Idaho Thursday night at the Paycom Center. The Cougars bring one of the nation’s top defensive units and a balanced offensive attack, while the Vandals are savoring their first March Madness appearance in over three decades after winning the Big Sky Tournament. If March Madness had a theme song, Idaho’s run would be the acoustic cover — slow start, lots of drama, and a hopeful build to something big.

Game Info

• Matchup: Idaho vs. Houston
• Region: South Region
• Location: Paycom Center — Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• TV: truTV
• Tip Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Vegas Line: Houston favored by ~ 24 (typical for a 2/15 pairing)

Idaho Vandals (15 Seed)

• Head Coach: Alex Pribble
• Mascot: Vandals
• Record: 21–14 (2025–26)
• Conference Tournament Result: Big Sky Tournament champions
• Leading Scorer: Jackson Rasmussen — 13.9 PPG

Team Metrics

• Points Per Game: ~78.7
• Points Allowed: ~72.8
• 3‑Point %: ~35.8% (team shooting)
• Style: Balanced scoring from multiple contributors, capable of defending but limited depth

Idaho’s Vandals ended a 36‑year NCAA Tournament drought by capturing the Big Sky title, earning a 15 seed and a date with Houston. Their offensive numbers are respectable for a mid‑major, and hitting nearly 36% from three makes them no instant exit — but this Cougars defense isn’t exactly the welcome committee you invite for tea.

Houston Cougars (2 Seed)

• Head Coach: Kelvin Sampson
• Mascot: Cougars
• Record: 28–6 (2025–26)
• Conference Tournament Result: Big 12 runner‑up
• Leading Scorer: Kingston Flemings — 16.4 PPG

Team Metrics

• Points Per Game: ~77.1
• Points Allowed: ~62.9 (elite defense)
• 3‑Point %: Houston’s shooters are efficient when open (team season trend)
• KenPom Profile: Top‑15 offensive efficiency and top‑10 defensive efficiency on most analytical boards

Houston’s hallmark this season has been stifling defense and depth — they hold opponents under 63 points per game on average, which is like playing every night in a wind tunnel for the opposition. Kingston Flemings leads the way with consistent scoring and playmaking, while a deep rotation keeps things fresh even when games get physical.

Matchup Breakdown

This is the classic “big school vs. red‑hot mid‑major” formula that makes March Madness interesting. Idaho can shoot and score at a respectable clip, but that’s a little like showing up with a squirt gun when Houston’s defense is a fire hose. The Cougars’ ability to clamp down and convert turnovers into points gives them a margin for error that most 2 seeds enjoy.

Idaho will need its three‑point bullets to be on fire early, crash the offensive glass hard, and hope for a few of those “nothing but net” moments that make highlight reels. Even then, Houston’s size, athleticism and defensive discipline make this a tall task — like standing on a stepladder to change a ceiling bulb while someone else wields a paint roller.

Prediction

• Pick: Houston advances
• Projected Score: Houston 84, Idaho 64

Houston’s defensive strength and balanced scoring make them heavy favorites, and their efficiency numbers align with the sizable Vegas spread. Idaho’s story is delightful and worthy of applause, but this looks like a night Houston takes control early and keeps the foot on the gas. On to Friday!

Check back for our Friday breakdowns coming soon!