Identifying Duke’s Missing Piece to Offensive Mastery

Jon Scheyer and crew have been excellent offensively to start the season. They are a wildly talented bunch but also a young group which means there are growing pains. After a statistical analysis using SynergySports there is a clear advantage that Duke has yet to take advantage of this year.

Duke Missing Key Play Preventing Offensive Mastery

As of now, the Boozer brothers are leading the team in assists. Cayden comes in with 5 per game and Cameron is averaging 4 per game. Duke has been spreading the ball around with a different leading scorer in all three games. While they have certainly put up huge numbers, including a 114 point outburst at Army on Veterans Day.

With that being said, Duke has a monster advantage on the block on the offensive end that they have not used yet. Let’s take a peek at where the offense has come from so far.

Post-Ups

Duke’s two best passers are likely their big men, Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba. These guys have a big size advantage as well as a very high basketball IQ. However, Boozer has six post ups in three games and Ngongba has four. Ten total post ups for two dominant bigs that are great passers is not enough.

For Boozer, on his six post ups, he has taken 2 shots, made one missed one. He has also drawn two shooting fouls leading to four points on the free throw line. Of his two remaining post ups, one was a turnover and another did not lead to a shot.

For Ngongba, he has taken and made two shots and then turned the ball over two other times. Both players on post-ups lead to 1 point per possession for Duke. This also comes with a true shooting percentage of 75% which is analytically very good.

Duke Offensive Breakdown

Duke has mostly lived in transition so far. They have 60 possessions in transition and have been very effective with 1.167 points per possession. After that, their most frequent and productive offense is spot ups, to be expected with a great shooting team.

After these two, the offense becomes much more spread out. However, Duke has been invested in the pick and roll game (usually late in the shot clock). 30 possessions have ended with the pick and roll and they have been wildly inefficient. The PNR ball handler is currently leading to 0.7 points per possession and the roll man leads to 0.9 points per possession. Both of these are average at best.

Changes to Further Unlock Duke’s Potential

The proposal would be to limit the pick and roll game and in turn increase the post up game. Ngongba and Boozer can be incredibly efficient from the block. One of the big knocks on Duke, specifically in the first half of games this year is the reliance on the 3 point shot. Starting offense from the block, specifically with Boozer there can create more paint touches, make it easier for guards to thrive on the wing, and lead to a ton of open threes on kick outs.

Boozer has been spending a lot of time around the arc to start games and seems to find his way to the rim late in games. Flipping the script could unlock Duke.

Notably, Cooper Flagg also spent a lot of time on the wing and minimal on the block last year. Scheyer tends to like floor spacing with a four, to five out model. He has very creative and talented forwards that make this possible. However, using the shear size and talent of Boozer and Ngongba on the block could revolutionize the Duke offense. Look for this to be something Duke does in tougher games and later in the season.