Iowa State vs Tennessee Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Iowa State vs Tennessee Game Preview: Whose Offense Will Step Up?

Iowa State vs Tennessee How To Watch

Date: Friday, March 27, 2026
Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL
Time: 10:10 pm ET
TV: TBS/truTV
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (2) Iowa State 29-7, (6) Tennessee 24-11
Football Series History: Tennessee 1-0. The Vols beat the Cyclones 23-21 to open the 1982 season.
NCAA Tournament So Far
Iowa State: 1st Round, Tennessee State 104-74; 2nd Round, Kentucky 82-63

Tennessee: 1st Round, Miami University 78-56; 2nd Round, Virginia 79-72

- CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews

Key Stats

- Iowa State forced 20 turnovers in the win over Kentucky, and gave it away just seven times.

- Tennessee made 19-of-25 free throws (76%) in the win over Virginia. The Cavaliers got to the line 11 times and made just six.

Why Tennessee Will Win: The Volunteer Defense Can Stop the Three

Iowa State can really, really shoot. Cyclone star Milan Momcilovic just needs a sliver of daylight, and the outside shot is up - no one in the country has made more threes this season.

He leads the high-powered attack that hit ten or more threes 14 times this season, with the only loss coming to Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament thriller.

Tennessee led the SEC in three-point defense, allowing ten or more makes from the outside just seven times. It also allowed just three teams - Kansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt - to make 40% of their outside shots - that’s Iowa State’s game.

Why Iowa State Will Win: Just Score

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Tennessee has a great defense. Iowa State can play a little D, too, holding teams to under 43% this season - the Vols are 1-6 when shooting under 45%.

This isn’t a Tennessee team that thrives on big scoring games. It’s 2-8 when allowing 74 points or more, and those two wins were in overtime.

And yes, this is a good three-point defense the Cyclones are dealing with, but they can hit from everywhere, going 27-1 when making 44% of their shots.

There’s some talk of star Joshua Jefferson returning from an ankle injury. Iowa State could use its quarterback to navigate this Tennessee defense.

Iowa State vs Tennessee Prediction, Betting Lines

Just when it seems like it’s time to think Tennessee has it all put together, and when it seems like Iowa State is about to start missing, it all goes wrong.

The Cyclones are playing a nasty level of defense over the last several games, but they have to be able to hold their own on the boards against the tough Volunteer rebounders.

Neither team is great on the free throw line, but Iowa State can hit threes, and Tennessee, for the most part, can’t.

The pace, though, will favor the Vols, and the ability to take over on the boards will mean everything down the stretch of a game when every possession will matter.

Prediction: Tennessee 73, Iowa State 71
Consensus Line: Iowa State -3.5, o/u: 138.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.