Kentucky vs Illinois Prediction, Preview & Odds: NCAA Tournament Second Round

Kentucky vs Illinois How To Watch

Date: Sunday, March 23
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 5:15 pm ET
TV: CBS
Teams: (6) Illinois (22-13), (3) Kentucky (23-11)
Region: Midwest
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews

Why Illinois Will Win

Size, NBA talent, rebounding, speed, shooting - when Illinois is a good mood and it’s making its outside shots, it’s on.

It’s not a consistent team by any measure, but it got 12 threes from various spots against Xavier, went 18-for-18 on the line, and had the exact type of energy it needs to somehow bottle and bring out each and every time.

And it’s about those threes.

Of course teams do better when they’re hitting from the outside, but plenty of times teams finish with great three-point statistics because they were bombing away in a comeback attempt. That’s not Illinois.

When it makes them, it’s winning. When it’s not making them, it keeps shooting them, it keeps missing, and things go off the rails.

The Illini are 16-3 when making at least ten threes and 12-0 when making 11 or more.

Kentucky has allowed 11 or more threes 15 times, but …

Why Kentucky Will Win

The UK D is actually solid at stopping the three. Teams have to keep firing away to keep up, but against Illinois if Lamont Butler - who didn’t make a shot against Troy - and the guards can get out quickly on the Illinis bombers, they should be okay.

But the Wildcats are more than that. It started the season as a three-point bombing team, and now it’s figured out how to generate more balance and move the ball around well.

No one in the SEC is better at shooting threes, they’re great on the defensive glass, and …

Kentucky vs Illinois: Who Will Win?

Who shoots better? It’s basic, but it’s a big deal with these two because it’s all about the field goal percentage in the shootouts they play.

Illinois is 0-8 when shooting worst than 40% and 3-11 when shooting under 44%. Kentucky has to get to around 44%, too.

Both teams are racially okay on defense, but Illinois is way worse at consistently hitting the threes. That, combined with a turnover issue, will be enough for Kentucky to survive a thriller.

Kentucky vs Illinois Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Kentucky 85, Illinois 82
Kentucky vs Illinois Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: Illinois -1, o/u: 169.5
DraftKings Line: Illinois -1, o/u:
FanDuel Line: Illinois -1, o/u: 169.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
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