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NCAA March Madness: Midwest Region Sweet 16 betting preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 3/23/23

Houston has not dominated as expected in this Tournament because their top player, Marcus Sasser, has been hurt. They have endured though and the more time he has the better, so the best shot to "get" the Cougars might have already come and gone. The rest of the bracket has mostly played to form.

I had the Cougars as the best bet in the Region pre-tourney, Then you got +130 and now they are down to -110. Not exactly worth it to jump in now.

This is one region where I nailed my best bets for the first couple of days, with Penn State winning outright and Miami eventually finding its stride against Drake.

Current Odds to Win Midwest Region

Houston Cougars -110
Texas Longhorns +190
Xavier Musketeers +600
Miami Hurricanes +700

Miami might have the longest odds in the group but they are capable of winning the region. At this point it is still hard to bet against Houston, even though Texas is loaded with talent and experience. This group is super tight so unless you feel really good about the Hurricanes or Musketeers it is probably a pass to just focus on handicapping the games. If you really like Miami, the payoff just for them to beat Houston is good enough to make that play, then you can reassess.

Midwest Region Sweet 16 Picks

Houston -7 (vs. Miami) — Miami plays small but that is not the way to beat Houston, because for all of their defensive intensity and physicality they are not a big team: they have no starters over 6-8. It is going to be very tough to beat the Cougars at their own game. Miami won't suffer a 10-0 run/killshot, but they will be methodically worn down. I think this number comes down a little though so I am going to wait. A -5 would be the sweet spot.

Texas -4 (vs. Xavier) — Another chalk play, sorry. I don't know why but I just don't like this Texas team. Nevertheless, I am trying not to let that cloud my judgment. They are the play thanks to their depth and their star power. Xavier is a quality team but I am just not seeing who steps up for them against a Texas team that can beat you in so many different ways. Texas pulls away late.

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