NCAAB betting: Inching closer to the Madness

Sunday, Jan. 21

Michigan State Spartans @ Maryland Terrapins
Noon ET (Fubo)
Projected Line: Michigan State -3

These are two teams that nobody can figure out. If you will recall we were on Maryland last weekend and they won outright at Illinois ... and then lost at Northwestern. Go figure. The Spartans also have lost against the Wildcats this season. MSU is the more talented team but playing them as a favorite is just asking for disappointment. Maryland, as a home underdog feels like the lesser of two evils, and in Jahmir Young they have the best guard on the floor.
 
Recommendation: Take Maryland at this number, or better. 

Saturday, Jan. 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers
(ESPN)
Spread: Tennessee -5.5

Tennessee is ranked sixth in the nation while Alabama is currently unranked. If you prefer a metric like KenPom, these are the sixth and seventh best teams in the country though so the gap might not be all that great. This one is a battle for who can get the pace they want. Tennessee got the Crimson Tide last season because they kept the game under 70 points. That one was at Tennessee too and they are a hard team to fade at home, especially this season when they have more offense to go with a stifling defense. I hope this line comes down a little though. 

Recommendation: You might want to take this one on the ML and attach it to another bet you like. The current line is fair, with my preference for Tennessee.

Connecticut Huskies @ Villanova Wildcats
8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: Connecticut -1.5

The Huskies are the No. 1 team in the country, but the spread is telling us the Wildcats are not to be taken for granted. I like this Nova team a lot and they are bound for the NCAAs, but they are off a loss and that very small spread makes them hard to fade. This UConn team is not as talented or experienced as last year but once again they have enough of everything. In Tristen Newton they have a very savvy experienced lead guard who can hold it all together. 

Recommendation: Take UConn, they are such a good value at this number.

BYU Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
6 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Spread: Texas Tech -2.5

BYU is one of the surprise teams of the season, They have just three losses, two of them on the road. They are an amazing ninth at KenPom, featuring efficient offenses and defenses. This is the ultimate style matchup because the Cougars have been great behind the arc and the Red Raiders are good at defending it. I do not think BYU is going to fade badly, but they are going to learn that winning on the road in the Big 12 is really hard and that it is more than just the best teams they need to be wary of. They won't embarrass themselves but another loss is coming, 

Recommendation: Texas Tech is not a team I love overall but I will back them on Saturday. 

St. Mary's Gaels vs. San Francisco Dons
10 p.m. ET (Fubo)
Spread: San Francisco -1.5

The Dons have yet to lose at home or in West Coast Conference play this season. St. Mary's has yet to lose on the road so something is going to give in this one. Plus SMC has beaten the Dons eight straight times, with a 7-1 ATS record in that run. I think that the Dons can get them this time. It will be a low-scoring affair for sure as the Gaels always seem to get teams into rock fights but San Francisco, who is great on the offensive glass will scratch out enough offense to win. 

Recommendation: Back San Francisco, up to -2.5 if need be.