Predictions for Michigan State Hoops' Game against Iowa

Mar 6, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Drew Thelwell (3) controls the ball as Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) defends during the first half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Predictions for Michigan State Hoops' Game against Iowa

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Jacob Cotsonika | Last updated Dec 2, 2025 9:00 AM ET

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So much attention is on the football program's transformative changes from the past few days, but the seventh-ranked Michigan State men's basketball team has another challenging game ahead of itself.

The Spartans are opening up Big Ten play against Iowa, the first team that was left out of the AP Poll's weekly top 25 rankings. As of Monday night, the Hawkeyes are No. 16 in the NCAA's NET rankings, making Tuesday's clash a Quad 1 opportunity for MSU.

On this episode of the Michigan State Spartans Insider Podcast, let's break down this intriguing conference matchup and make a prediction on the final score.

A full video of the episode can be viewed below, as is some other written predictions.

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More Predictions

This game is in a tricky spot for MSU. Praise has been in abundance for the Spartans, as they cracked the top 10 on Monday after another big win against No. 16 North Carolina in front of a wide TV audience on Thanksgiving. They cannot allow themselves to get that emotional hangover from a big win, nor can they look ahead to Saturday's heavyweight bout against No. 4 Duke.

Iowa is more than capable of sneaking into East Lansing and grabbing a win if Michigan State is not ready. The Hawkeyes haven't played the schedule MSU has, but they are still 7-0 in their first year with head coach Ben McCollum.

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The best player Iowa has is Bennett Stirtz, who was alongside McCollum at Division II Northwest Missouri State and last year at Drake. Stirtz was the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year in 2024-25, helping lead the mid-major Bulldogs to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The transition to the Big Ten has been seamless for him thus far; he's averaging 18.6 points and 5.4 assists on good efficiency.

One key in this game is the super slow pace of play that Iowa has, which is much different than the style previous coach Fran McCaffery had. Drake had the least amount of possessions per game last season with McCollum, and Iowa is towards the bottom of Division I right now. Michigan State playing at its own pace and getting down the court quickly will be key, but Tom Izzo said that his team cannot get frustrated if the style of Tuesday's game leans more to Iowa, rather than MSU, when I asked him about the Hawkeyes' slower pace on Monday.

Izzo also said that the efficiency of Iowa's team really stands out. Entering Tuesday, the Hawkeyes are hitting 38.4% of their threes and 63.2% of their twos, which both are in the top 40 nationally.

I do think that this game will play into Iowa's style a bit, with a lower amount of possessions than usual for either side. Still, the Hawkeyes haven't faced a test like this yet, MSU has, and I don't think Michigan State will be caught looking ahead to Duke, especially since this is a Big Ten game.