Projecting UCF's Full NCAA Tournament Path

For just the sixth time in its history, the UCF Knights are among the 68 teams vying for the championship in March Madness.

However, just how long of a run can the Knights muster?

What are experts saying?

Despite the Bruins being the favorite, a few notable experts, such as CBS's Gary Parrish and Josh Nagel, NBC's Nicole Auerbach and ESPN's Jay Bilas, have the Knights making it to the second round.

Despite the Bruins being the favorite, a few notable experts, such as CBS' Gary Parrish and Josh Nagel, NBC's Nicole Auerbach and ESPN's Jay Bilas, have the Knights making it to the second round.

"The Bruins have Donovan Dent, one of the five best point guards in the nation, but UCF has Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks and the Big 12's version of Draymond Green in Jamichael Stillwell. With UCLA banged up, the Knights are worth a flier," Bilas wrote.

However, none of these experts have UCF upsetting 2-seed UConn in the second round.

Possible Opponents

Should the Knights defeat UCLA, their most likely second-round opponent would be 2-seed UConn. 

The Huskies are coming off winning national championships in two of the last three years under coach Dan Hurley and sport the nation's 11th-best scoring defense and are in the Top 25 in the nation in field-goal and three-point percentage defense.

Barring upsets, a win against UConn would have the Knights most likely facing a 3-seed, Michigan State, led by the longtime coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 35th in the nation in field goal percentage defense and third in the nation in rebound margin.

Our Projection

The Knights and coach Johnny Dawkins are no strangers to pulling off first-round upsets. They did it back in 2019, after all.

If the Knights can rebound from their recent shooting struggles, particularly from three, then they have a chance at making a deep run, maybe even making it past the Huskies.

However, even when their shooting has been on point, UCF has had its struggles against the best in the nation in scoring defenses like Houston, West Virginia, Iowa State and Cincinnati, all of which rank in the nation's Top 35 in the category. UConn is ranked 11th.

So, our projection is that the Knights match their 2019 campaign and make it to the Round of 32, but are eliminated at the hands of Dan Hurley and the Huskies.

UCF's matchup against 7-seed UCLA tips off at 7:25 p.m. on Friday.

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