UCLA head coach Mick Cronin reacts to a play against Michigan State during the first half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Projecting UCLA's 2026-27 Win Total

Originally posted on UCLA Bruins on SI
By Andrew L. Ferguson Jr | Last updated May 11, 2026 1:00 PM ET

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With UCLA’s offseason nearly complete, we now have a much better idea of how well this team could perform next season.

There is little doubt that UCLA has adequately addressed some of its needs. On the other hand, there are still some glaring issues that could severely limit the Bruins’ ceiling next season. Because of that, their projected win total for 2026-27 might not be what fans expect.

UCLA's Floor

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The most reasonable floor for UCLA next season is around 19 wins. While that number definitely doesn't sound ideal for the Bruins, it is important to remember that UCLA plays in the conference. Not only is the Big Ten one of the most competitive conferences in the country, but it could also be the main reason UCLA struggles to reach the 20-win mark.

Even though that win total might imply UCLA misses the NCAA Tournament outright, it is important to remember the NCAA is expected to expand to a 76-team tournament format. That could still allow UCLA to sneak into the field and salvage what would otherwise feel like a disappointing season.

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

With how UCLA’s roster currently looks, a sub-20-win season is definitely not out of the question. Their offense on paper appears significantly worse than it did last season. Because of that, it would make sense for UCLA to regress in certain areas despite improving elsewhere on the roster.

UCLA's Ceiling

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Unfortunately for UCLA, its ceiling is not dramatically higher than its floor. If everything goes according to plan, the Bruins could realistically surpass 23 wins next season. With improved frontcourt depth, more physicality, and stronger defense, UCLA does look like a team capable of making serious noise.

But as mentioned earlier, there are still major concerns that UCLA has not fully solved, especially at the center position. Without a true anchor in the frontcourt, UCLA may have to patch together lineups using a very inexperienced group of forwards.

Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

However, if Mick Cronin can turn that glaring weakness into an advantage, UCLA could become a very difficult team to play against. While 23 wins may sound ambitious, it is still well within reach considering how much UCLA improved its overall depth this offseason.

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The bottom line is that UCLA could realistically end up as one of the weaker teams in the Big Ten or one of the better teams, depending on how quickly its new players develop. It also depends heavily on how much the returning core improves from last season to next.

This article first appeared on UCLA Bruins on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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