Teams to watch and avoid in the 2018 tournament

I know history doesn't actually have a bearing on the present, but listen to this Michigan State stat: Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans have won a share of the Big Ten eight times (including this season). In the previous seven instances, Michigan State has gone to the Final Four five times. Ask Kansas how easy it is to follow a conference regular-season championship with a Final Four spot. This is arguably Izzo's best team in East Lansing, and as long as they don't have to face archrival Michigan, the Spartans should be a safe bet to get to San Antonio. 

The last two seasons saw North Carolina playing on college basketball's final night, but this team may not get there. Sure, the Tar Heels are led by an experienced backcourt of 2017 MOP Joel Berry II and Theo Pinson, but this team is unlike the more successful Roy Williams squads. The Heels are poor defending the three and lack size inside. They've morphed into a three-point shooting team and struggle to score in the post. If Berry struggles, this team goes down with him. The run to the ACC Championship Game was promising, but UNC's deficiencies showed up again against an admittedly great Virginia squad. With Providence and Michigan along the path to San Antonio, the Heels could get upset.

There haven't been too many programs that've been better than Villanova over the past three years. The 2018 edition is much of the same as the Wildcats are such an efficient offense with guys all over who can handle the ball, pass it and stroke the three. Six players average at least 10 points per game, led by stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, who are both All-Americans. Sure, aside from the 2016 championship run, they've been known as a bit of an underperformer when March comes around, but this is a team you can believe in. The East bracket is a bit soft, so expect to see the Wildcats in San Antonio.

The Bearcats have one of the best defenses in the nation, and you know defense wins championships. However, in the NCAA Tournament you must be able to score as well. Granted, Cincy's offense is better than usual under Mick Cronin, but this team can struggle to score at times. The season-ending win over Wichita State was big since it qualifies as the team's only "quality win" on the season. If the Bearcats get to the second round, can they apply pressure on opponents offensively as well as defensively? I wouldn't bank on it.

No, this isn't the one-and-done juggernaut that we typically see burst into the dance hall. This Kentucky team isn't as talented nor as cohesive. However, John Calipari typically has the Wildcats playing their best as they enter the tournament. They were playing much better before laying an egg in their season finale at Florida and then rolled to the SEC Tournament crown. Sure, it is a tall order to face Arizona, but Kentucky has the horses to hang in a battle of the Wildcats. Since Cal arrived in Lexington, the Wildcats have only twice lost to a lower seed (2010, 2015) in the tournament. 

The Buckeyes had that epic run during the meat of the conference season, but this team isn't exactly on fire entering the tournament. They've lost three of their last five games with two coming to Penn State, and they lost to the Nittany Lions three times this season. Sure, the Buckeyes have those big wins over Purdue and Michigan State in their pocket, but they are just 4-8 against quality opponents. If there is a team on upset alert, look at the Buckeyes.

Yes, the Red Raiders ended the regular season losing four straight before beating TCU on the final day of the season. Sure, star Keenan Evans has been dealing with a toe injury the last couple of weeks that seems to have slowed him. If he is playing close to full strength and that defense continues to play lights out, however, Texas Tech is a team to watch. This is a team that could find itself in the Elite Eight.

Trae Young may have exploded onto the scene this season, but the Sooners are far from rolling heading into the tournament. Sure, many remember Buddy Hield carrying Oklahoma to the Final Four two seasons ago, but this Sooners squad is far less talented. They have lost seven of nine games to close out the regular season and allow more points than any power conference team. Who knows, maybe once Young and company get away from Big 12 opponents they will thrive again. I wouldn't bet on it. 

All the Hokies have done this year is beat Duke, North Carolina and Virginia — at Virginia. This team can play and has an uncanny ability to win close games. Five guys score in double figures, led by Justin Robinson, who has gotten better and more consistent as the season has gone along. Head coach Buzz Williams is a veteran guy who knows how to advance his team through the tournament and could make the Hokies a tough out. 

Creighton went 10-8 in the Big East and was a decent offensive and defensive team. The Bluejays had a good year and had some good wins (like beating Villanova a few weeks back), but they're not set up for a long tournament run. They went just 3-9 against quality teams and somehow are a great defensive rebounding team but a bad offensive rebounding squad. They don't create steals so they struggle to find ways for extra possessions (or extending the ones they have). In the tournament, that can bite you in the rear – especially if you have to face Virginia in the second round.

The Volunteers ended the regular season winning 12 of 14, swept Kentucky during the year, beat Purdue earlier this season and won a share of the SEC regular-season title. They have three guys who are so tough to guard in SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield and Lamonte Turner, who is one of the nation's top sixth men. Rick Barnes has the Vols playing tough defense and with a confidence that makes them a dangerous team in March. 

Auburn shared the SEC regular-season title with Tennessee, but the Tigers haven't looked as good since Anfernee McLemore suffered his season-ending ankle injury. They have lost four of six since the injury, and the last time they played Alabama ran them out of the SEC Tournament.

Gonzaga lost a lot from a team that went to the National Championship Game a year ago, but in true Zags form, they are back in the dance and just as dangerous. Johnathan Williams and Killian Tillie anchor this version of the Bulldogs that has lost just once since Christmas. While this team is different than the one that lost to North Carolina last year, it no longer has that gorilla on its back after making the Final Four and will play with no pressure. Who knows? The Bulldogs could get another crack at the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight.

For the second straight year, Michigan ran through the Big Ten Tournament and won the title. Last season's squad reached the Sweet 16 before bowing out to Oregon. Last year, none of the power seven conference tournament winners made it to the Final Four, and only one, Kentucky, even reached the Elite Eight. None of those teams had to wait 10 days before playing in the tournament like the Wolverines will. Montana is a tough foe before facing the Houston/Gonzaga winner. Hopefully the Wolverines will be ready to go out of the gate.

The Ramblers are making their first tournament appearance since 1985. They've gotten there by being a great passing team, a great defensive team and an opportunistic three-point shooting team. The Missouri Valley Conference champs have only lost once since Jan. 3 and employ a very versatile offense with five guys averaging between 10 and 13 points per game. They also have a game against Miami in which they could pull an upset.

Yes, the Mountaineers beat Virginia earlier this season, but that was some time ago. Lately, West Virginia is known more for its second-half collapses than any of its wins. The "Press Virginia" defense seems to have its lulls and can be taken advantage of. Usually I love teams like this in March since they are so difficult to game plan for in a short turnaround, but this 'Neers team has struggled to put together a complete 40 minutes.

The Ohio Valley Conference champs have lost just once since Jan. 11 (at Belmont) and boast a true mid-major star. Jonathan Stark averages nearly 22 points per game and shoots 41 percent from behind the arc and nearly 90 percent from the charity stripe. The entire team is potent from downtown and looks the part of a possible bracket buster. The last two times the Racers made it to the tournament (2012, 2010), they advanced to the second round. "Press Virginia" up against Stark will be a treat.

One day, this team looks like it can make a run to the Final Four. The next, you have no idea how this team even made it to the tournament. The Gators are an enigma. They are talented — Jalen Hudson can score, Egor Koulechov is a load and Chris Chiozza is the school's all-time assist leader — but some games they look lost. Florida is tough to trust. The Gators get the winner of the UCLA/St. Bonaventure game, and since the First Four started in 2011, at least one winner of a First Four game has advanced to the second round.

It really is OK to trust the Cavaliers this year. The last few years they have been among the top programs in the country but still haven't broken through to the Final Four; this just may be the team to break that drought. Defensively, UVA is still suffocating and very efficient on offense. No, I'm not promising you that you will suddenly enjoy watching them play, but you can expect to watch them win. 

The Seminoles aren't exactly on fire entering the tournament. They lost six of their final 10 games of the season, including getting blasted by Louisville in their only ACC Tournament game. This team has beaten North Carolina, Miami, Florida, Clemson and Virginia Tech this year, but the Noles are struggling defensively right now and don't have that go-to scorer to ride when times are tough. It doesn't help to have to face an improving Missouri team before potentially going up against Xavier.