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Three Draft Prospects Expected to Take a Significant Jump This Season
Apr 4, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II (21) during a practice session for the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Players take significant leaps every season, some more predictable than others. Some players in the 2025 NBA Draft, for example, returned to school instead of staying in the 2024 NBA Draft. A handful of the best players in college basketball this past season even, such as Nique Clifford, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Rasheer Fleming, returned to their respective schools in 2024. These players were already getting draft buzz but solidified their NBA draft position either through increased opportunity and/or continued improvement as a player the following season.

Below are three players who played less than 40% of their team's minutes this past season and are expected to take a significant leap this upcoming season.

Patrick Ngongba II, Duke

A potential first round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Ngongba II is a rising sophomore for the Duke Blue Devils. The 6-foot-11 big man played in only 20.2% of the team's minutes last season, but was incredibly productive when on the floor.

The former standout Paul VI Catholic player recorded 14.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals, and two blocks per 40 minutes last season. He also recorded a 12.1 offensive rebound percentage, 12.6 assist percentage, 2.1 steal percentage, and a 5.6 block percentage--ultimately recording a 10.5 Box Plus-Minus. This Box Plus-Minus was first amongst all freshmen who played less than 40% of their team's minutes but greater than 20% of their team's minutes -- the next closest was Morez Johnson Jr (transferred from Illinois to Michigan for his sophomore season) with a 6.7 Box Plus-Minus in 37.5% of Illinois' minutes.

Look for Ngongba II to enter first round pick conversations this upcoming season.

Mouhamed Dioubate, Kentucky

The rising junior and 6-foot-7 wing played for Alabama the past two seasons. Last season, Dioubate's per-40 numbers were impressive: 18.1 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.7 blocks, and 2.7 turnovers. Advanced stats also indicate a 13 offensive rebound percentage, 23.9 defensive rebound percentage, 11.8 assist percentage, 3.1 steal percentage, and a 3.8 block percentage.

Dioubate also converted 64.1% of his attempts at the rim (117 attempts), 68.4% of his non-rim twos (19 attempts), 46.2% of his threes (only 26 attempts), but only 60.9% of his free throws (92 attempts) -- a latter number that must improve.

Overall, Dioubate recorded a Box Plus-Minus of 10.1, fourth amongst all sophomores who played at least 30% of their team's minutes last season. The other three players ahead of him: Collin Murray-Boyles, JT Toppin, and Aday Mara (mentioned below). Look for Dioubate to solidify himself as a 2026 NBA Draft prospect this upcoming season as a member of the Kentucky Wildcats.

Aday Mara, Michigan

Mara is a rising junior and will be playing for the University of Michigan this upcoming season. He's a 7-foot-3 big man who, despite playing in only 31.7% of UCLA's minutes last season, is projected to be an impact player at Michigan this season.

Similar to Ngongba II and Dioubate, Mara's per-40 minute stats were outstanding: 19.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 4.9 blocks, and 2.6 turnovers. Mara also recorded a 16.9 offensive rebound percentage, 21.8 defensive rebound percentage, 16.7 assist percentage, 0.8 steal percentage, and a 17.2 block percentage--very impressive numbers.

He also finished 67.9% of his attempts at the rim last season while shooting 47.6% on non-rim twos. He's a career 61.4% free throw shooter, however, on 101 total attempts. Overall, Mara recorded a Box Plus-Minus of 10.3 last season.

Look for Mara to be one of the most impactful players in college basketball this season and solidify himself into 2026 NBA Draft conversations as well.


This article first appeared on NBA Draft on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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