USC vs. Michigan State: Preview, Prediction, Betting Odds

How to Watch USC vs. Michigan State

When: Monday, Jan. 5

Where: Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.)

Time: 5:30 p.m. PT

TV: FS1

Radio: USC broadcast on SiriusXM Ch. 372

Responding After an Embarrassing Loss at Michigan

Friday night in Ann Arbor was a gut check. USC never led, trailed 49–31 at halftime, and unraveled in transition during a 96-66 loss that exposed several structural issues. The Trojans shot just 34.5 percent from the field, went 5-for-23 from three, and committed 21 turnovers, many of which fueled Michigan’s 26 fast-break points.

This matchup isn’t just about bouncing back emotionally. It’s about answering a real question: Can USC compete on the road against elite Big Ten teams? Both of USC’s losses have come in conference play. At 12-2 overall, the record still looks strong, but the Big Ten doesn’t reward paper résumés. Falling to 1-3 would leave USC buried early in a league with too many bid-stealers ahead of them. A competitive showing matters. A win would matter more.

Who Steps Up Next to Chad Baker-Mazara?

USC’s margin for error is thin right now. With Rodney Rice out for the year and Alijah Arenas still sidelined, Chad Baker-Mazara has been forced into a dual role as both primary scorer and lead ball handler. He entered the Michigan game averaging 20.4 points per contest, but foul trouble limited him to 23 minutes and just 12 points.

That made one thing clear: USC needs help. Samford senior transfer Jaden Brownell has quietly positioned himself as the best candidate. He’s delivered against Power Five competition, including:

- 16 points vs. Arizona State (Maui Invitational title game)

- 11 vs. Oregon

- 8 vs. Washington

- 16 points vs. Michigan on 6-of-10 shooting

Brownell doesn’t need to dominate, but he needs to be reliable. If defenses load up on Baker-Mazara again, USC must have a second option capable of keeping the offense functional in the half court and punishing rotations. If that doesn’t happen, Michigan State’s pressure and physicality could suffocate USC the same way Michigan did.

Jaxon Kohler Sets the Tone for Michigan State

Michigan State isn’t coming in desperate, but they are motivated. The Spartans are 12-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play, coming off a 58-56 loss against the Nebraska Cornhuskers where offense was hard to come by. After scoring 114 points against Cornell earlier in the week, the Spartans failed to reach 60 four days later. The constant has been senior forward Jaxon Kohler.

Kohler enters the week averaging a double-double and second in the Big Ten in rebounding (14.1 points, 10.4 rebounds per game) and second in conference three-point percentage (51 percent). His ability to stretch the floor while controlling the glass creates matchup problems, especially for a USC team that relies on length and rim protection to cover mistakes. If Kohler dictates the interior early, Michigan State can force USC into half-court possessions where turnovers and spacing issues have already surfaced.