Tiered lottery proposal could solve NBA's tanking problem

NBA commissioner Adam Silver has proposed changes to the league's draft lottery to discourage teams from losing on purpose. Now there's a new wrinkle that could dramatically change the incentives for losing.

One of the league's general managers suggested that the worst three teams in the NBA should have worse lottery odds than the better teams finishing outside of the play-in. That could reverse the current race to the bottom and make the end of the season far more interesting.

NBA needs to disincentive losing

During a meeting of the league's general managers this week, Yahoo's Kevin O'Connor reported that one GM suggested that the best way to keep teams actively trying is to directly punish losing. The NBA tried this when they flattened lottery odds to give the bottom four teams only a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, but it only served to make it more appealing to miss the playoffs.

In 2023, the NBA imposed a $750K fine on the Dallas Mavericks for losing on purpose to dodge the play-in tournament and make the lottery. This season, a full third of the league appears totally disinterested in making the playoffs. The Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz have combined to go 1-19 in their last 20 games in a quest for more lottery ping-pong balls, and at one point, the league's bottom 10 teams were on a combined 40-game losing streak.

The tanking is egregious and has made the end of the season unwatchable. Yet the draft system rewards being not just bad but terrible. The three worst teams have lost at least 75 percent of their games and two more are likely to hit 60 losses.

It's led to teams benching not just starters but reserves, signing G Leaguers to 10-day contracts and playing them heavy minutes. That's why changing the calculus of draft positioning is appealing to Silver.

Punishing the very worst teams restores balance

Would the Indiana Pacers have been willing to sit multiple starters throughout their 16-game losing streak if it was going to hurt their lottery odds? Would the Jazz and Wizards have kept so many stars out or agreed to season-ending surgeries for their best players?

By protecting the bottom four teams and their draft position, the NBA makes losing games a serious goal. The league's other proposals, like flattening odds further or expanding the lottery to 18 or 22 teams, still make losing more appealing — only in the playoffs this time. Denying the very worst team the very best draft chances should minimize — or at least delay — the very worst tanking.

It's a tough problem for Silver and the NBA to solve, but removing the reward for being a miserably bad team is a big step in the right direction. After all, the playoffs are a week away, and the biggest NBA topic of discussion is tanking. That alone should push Silver to consider a dramatic fix.