WCC Tournament: St. Mary's Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs odds, best bets

The number is always the thing. Yesterday we had Furman +1.5, and I also suggested taking the Paladins on the moneyline. Their overtime thriller against Chattanooga would have gone 1-1 if you made both of those bets. It was a real nail-biter won at the buzzer by the Mocs by a point.  Welcome to March Madness.  

Today, we have the ACC Tournament getting underway, but none of the games is of much interest so we look West, where the WCC is going to crown its champ in Las Vegas tonight.

St. Mary's got Gonzaga in the final game of the regular season, doing something no WCC team had done all year. I don't have the research, but I have to think it has been a very long time since Gonzaga lost to the same team twice in one season.

The Zags beat San Francisco last night. The Dons were feisty but ultimately did not have enough. St. Mary's beat a good Santa Clara team by three points, likely ending the Broncos' chances of racing to the NCAAs.

That's the setup for tonight. Both the Gaels and the Bulldogs are in NCAA Tournament field, but there should still be some excitement in the air. 

Game Info

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
9:00 PM ET
ESPN

Betting Odds

Spread: Gaels +12.5 (-110), Bulldogs -12.5 (-110)
Total: 140.5
Moneyline: Gaels +495, Bulldogs -625

Best Bet

Gonzaga -12.5

This line is interesting in that it seems like St. Mary's upset of the Zags has done nothing to change how people think this one will turn out. I guess it is also saying that Gonzaga is awesome … but we already knew that.

When the Gaels beat the Zags recently, it was a perfect storm. They did a great job slowing things down, and they forced Gonzaga into its worst offensive game of the season. Doing that two games in a row is tough, and they did not look great defensively against Santa Clara last night. Maybe they peaked too soon.

The simple fact is that prior to losing to the Gaels, Gonzaga had dominated every game against the WCC this season, winning by double digits. That kind of outcome is definitely in the range of possibilities for this conference championship game, and unlike in past years, the Gaels do not need to "show" to get into the NCAA Tournament. 

I think that might be a bigger factor than we realize, especially if St. Mary's gets down early. 

The Bulldogs are not going to win and cover every time, but with Gonzaga, I find it is best not to overthink things. Even with massive spreads to cover most nights, the Zags are 9-4-2 against the WCC this season. They are looking for revenge and to potentially make a statement tonight too.

I do not want to fade elite forwards Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren, who had their worst games of the season against St. Mary's the first time around, scoring just 12 points. That is not going to happen again. 

Look for that duo to be fired up and dominate early. Gonzaga runs away with another title and wins by 15 points.