Women’s Elite Eight: LSU vs. Iowa odds, picks, prediction, best bet for 4/1 

LSU vs. Iowa

Monday, April 1, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAW odds here

LSU Tigers

Last year LSU cruised to a 102-85 win over Iowa in the national championship, and did so with contributions from nearly everyone on their roster. Some of those contributions were expected, but some were an absolute shock.

The players who were crucial to LSU’s win last year that won’t be here this time around were:

• F LaDazhia Williams: 9/16: 20 points
• G Alexis Morris: 8/14: 21 points
• G Jasmine Carson: 7/8: 22 points
• G Kateri Poole: 2/2: 6 points

Nearly 68% of LSU’s 102 points came from players no longer on their roster a year later. Still Kim Mulkey was able to reload with some key transfers and an impactful freshman.

The returners from last year's championship squad include star forward Angel Reese, who is averaging 18.7 points and 13.2 rebounds per game, and last year’s SEC Freshman of the Year, guard Flau’jae Johnson.

Flau’jae has been on a tear in March averaging 19.9 PPG over seven games and shooting over 61% from the field. The newcomers include

• Transfer from DePaul, Forward, Aneesah Morrow: 16.5 PPG | 9.9 RPG
• Transfer from Louisville, Guard, Hailey Van Lith: 11.7 PPG
• Freshman Guard, Mikaylah Williams: 14.4 PPG

Although she wasn’t a part of last year’s LSU roster, Hailey Van Lith also had a matchup with Caitlin Clark in the tournament last year. Hailey poured in 27 points against the Iowa squad, but Caitlin torched her and the Cardinals for a 41 point triple double.

How LSU Beats Iowa:

• Utilize athleticism and length
  • Defensively, Iowa will most likely run the same defensive scheme it used to beat South Carolina and lose to LSU in  last year's national championship: 2-3 zone forcing the Tigers to make shots from the outside and protect the paint from Angel Reese and Aneesah Morrow. Attacking the offensive glass, moving in space and finding pockets in the zone are crucial.
• Disrupt Iowa’s offensive rhythm
  • Iowa relies on movement, points in transition, back cuts, constant screening and a whole lot of threes. Aneesah Morrow will most likely be matched up on a smaller guard in Kate Martin or Sydney Affolter. Pressuring the guards is vital to ensure Iowa gets slowed down and limited on possessions.
• Dominate the glass
  • A no-brainer, but if the Tigers dominate the offensive glass against the zone, they can route the Hawkeyes.

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Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes' win over South Carolina as a double-digit underdog in the Final Four was remarkable. The game plan coach Lisa Bluder drew up worked to perfection as Iowa forced the Gamecocks into 20 3-point shots where they shot 20% from.

Last year’s Gamecocks ranked 351st out of 361 teams in percentage of points from 3-point range. LSU was not far in front of South Carolina ranking 334th in the country.

When the Tigers hit 10 of their 11 three point attempts in the first half, there wasn’t much Iowa could do, and had to matchup in the second half to attempt a comeback, but then were punished inside during the second half.

Iowa returns three of last year’s starting five. Losing F Monika Czinano who averaged over 16 PPG and was Caitlin Clark’s go-to pick-and-roll partner for four years. The Hawkeyes also lost their do-it-all forward in McKenna Warnock who averaged over 10 points per game for Iowa.

Of course their magical season and incredible win over South Carolina doesn’t happen without the incredible Caitlin Clark.

With Caitlin Clark, it does feel like any game is winnable after beating the greatest statistical defense women’s college basketball has seen over the last two decades, but knocking off this years’ Tigers will take a mountainous effort.

How Iowa Beats LSU:

• Draw fouls and get to the free throw line
  • This is not a slight on LSU’s guard play, but there’s no secret that the Tigers struggle without Angel Reese / Aneesah Morrow on the floor. They are two of the best rebounders in the country, efficient scorers, and alter countless shots. Angel Reese’s on-off numbers are truly remarkable. In SEC play this year, per CBB Analytics, Angel’s +42.3 in net rating when she’s on the court is the best of any player in the entire country.
• Crash the glass every play
  • Iowa has yet to face a team that can dominate the glass like LSU. Iowa is 28-1 this season when holding their opponents to 40 rebounds or less. They are 4-3 when giving up more than 40 rebounds. LSU averages 46 rebounds per game and is 27-1 when grabbing more than 40 rebounds, with their only loss coming against the 35-0 South Carolina Gamecocks. When the Tigers have 40 or less rebounds they are 4-4 on the season.
• Attack the weak link
  • Anyone who watches an LSU game can see where the Tigers are vulnerable after watching for five minutes or less. Hailey Van Lith is a liability on the defensive side of the ball. Utilizing some guard to guard screens and dribble hand-offs to get her matched up on Caitlin Clark can open up everything for the Hawkeyes.
• Make shots
  • The simplest key to success and how Iowa has dismantled so many of their opponents: Caitlin and company shoot the hell out of the ball.

LSU vs. Iowa

Betting Pick & Prediction

It’s going to take a Herculean effort to out-rebound, out-physical and out-tough the LSU Tigers.

I love Caitlin Clark as much as anyone in the country, and watching her play for the last four years in an Iowa Hawkeye uniform has been a blessing and a treat. What she has done for women’s basketball as a sport is simply amazing (I probably wouldn’t be writing this article if it had not been for the eyes she’s brought to the game).

All that being said, size is Queen in this game, and LSU should not be the underdog in this matchup. Take Kim Mulkey and the Tigers to win outright as underdogs and head back to the Final Four.

If I’m wrong, it means Caitlin pulled off the amazing and I can live with that.

Pick: LSU ML (+105) | 1 unit