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UConn's Paige Bueckers (left) and JuJu Watkins of Southern Cal (right). Getty Images

Women’s Elite Eight: UConn vs. USC odds, picks, prediction, best bet for 4/1

Originally posted on Action Network | By Dano Mataya | Last updated 3/31/24

The final spot in this year’s Final Four will be claimed by either Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies or JuJu Watkins and the USC Trojans . A duel between two of the best guards in the country, who are both finalists for Naismith Player of the Year, will be the perfect chaser after LSU vs. Iowa.

The Huskies are narrow favorites in Monday's contest, with the point spread down to UConn -3 against USC, while the over/under is stationed at 135.5 total points.

Let's dive into my picks and prediction for UConn vs USC as we preview this Women's Elite Eight game.

UConn vs. USC

Monday, April 1, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

UConn (W) Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	135.5 -110o / -110u	-165

USC (W) Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	135.5 -110o / -110u	+140

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAW odds here.

UConn Huskies

As head coach Geno Auriemma has stated in recent press conferences, Paige Bueckers, the National Player of the Year when she was a freshman, has arguably been playing better basketball than any player in March. She’s been an elite scorer in postseason play for the huskies, averaging over 27 points per game.

The biggest cause of concern, and frankly has been all season is the health of the Huskies. They are essentially playing a 6-player rotation, and cannot afford to see any starter go down, or get in foul trouble.

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USC Trojans

The expected National Freshman of the Year, JuJu Watkins has been nothing short of phenomenal this season.

Ranked second in the country in points per game behind Caitlin Clark, she’ll set the record for most points by a freshman in the season during her game against UConn, and has the highest point total of any player this year with her 51-point outing at Stanford.

In one of her more inefficient games against Baylor, Watkins was 8-for-28 from the field, but still put up 30 points and was crucial defensively for the Trojans with four blocks in the tight win against Baylor.

USC gets contributions from many pieces on their squad outside of JuJu. With three all-Ivy League players who have been instrumental pieces to their success this year on both sides of the ball.

UConn vs. USC

Betting Pick & Prediction

The data model suggests UConn rolls in this matchup, as it has the Huskies favored by eight points on a neutral court, but UConn gets heavy inflation from tearing up a sub-par Big East conference.

Meanwhile, USC won the PAC-12 tournament, which is one of the strongest conferences in the country, and that holds tremendous value.

No player draws more fouls or gets to the free throw line more than USC freshman JuJu Watkins. Taking over eight free throws per game, she has incredible feel and natural ability to draw fouls.

I don’t see that changing against UConn, and if she is able to get any UConn starter into foul trouble, the Huskies are in serious trouble. Take the points with the Trojans.