10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 8: Notre Dame vs USC, One Huge Over, and SEC Underdogs

On the flip side, I adore NFL underdogs in an Any Given Sunday sort of way. It doesn’t work like that in college football.

Winning the game is half the battle, and, obviously, it’s easier to pick straight-up winners among a bigger slate of college games. After that, it’s about understanding the line, and that’s straight grunt work.

This week, the theory works the other way. If I sort of like a bunch of dogs to potentially win outright, then the points are like getting extra fries at the bottom of the bag.

With a few point totals sprinkled in, it’s Underdog Week with my 10 best college football picks against the spread for Week 8.

Record So Far: 38-32
@PeteFiutak

10. Oklahoma vs South Carolina

Line: Oklahoma -5.5
Pick: South Carolina
- Game Preview, Prediction

For the first five picks, I’ll ballpark it that two of the underdogs will win outright, one will cover, one will come painfully close, and one will go screamingly wrong the other way. Take all of that however you want to.

Last week, I picked Texas to roll because everyone around the Longhorns had a We’re Mad As Hell, And We’re Not Going To Take It Anymore vibe.

And, because the Texas defense is fantastic.

South Carolina seems to have a little of that same sort of attitude. It’s a home game, Oklahoma is coming off the Red River Rivalry loss, and LaNorris Sellers is WAY overdue to do something fantastic.

9. Missouri vs Auburn

Line: Missouri -1.5
Pick: Auburn
- Game Preview, Prediction

A few cats among the dogs ...

Missouri, I’d like to introduce you to my good friend … a road game.

It’s the first one all year for the Tigers, they’re coming off a tough battle with Alabama, and Auburn - even though it has no earthly clue how to score - falls in that this-week-South Carolina bucket of teams that seem to be ready to quit screwing around and get a W.

The AU Tigers aren’t getting rocked - each of the three losses to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Georgia was by one score. With this defense, they’re overdue to have one of these flip the other way.

8. Washington vs Michigan

Line: Michigan -5.5
Pick: Washington 
- Game Preview, Prediction

I could be proven very, very, very wrong here, but Michigan doesn’t have another gear.

It didn’t have much to offer in the losses to USC or Oklahoma, winning at Nebraska is meh, and if you’re only beating Wisconsin 24-10, there’s a problem.

Washington - as the underdawg, sorry - is better coached, tough as nails, and this bunch can stop the run and convert on third downs like crazy.

I don’t believe in jinxes, but I’m nervous to speak this into existence - Washington doesn’t turn the ball over.

That’s how it loses, but if it’s air-tight on the mistakes, it could pull this off outright.

7. USC vs Notre Dame

Line: Notre Dame -9.5
Pick: USC
- Game Preview, Prediction

I 100% completely and totally believe that by the end of the season, Notre Dame will be good enough to play for the national title again.

It wins this, but the line is boosted a tad too much because of all the blowout wins after the 0-2 start.

(Earmuffs … I’ll whisper anyway … Purdue, Arkansas, Boise State, and NC State sort of suck.)

The Irish are overdue to have one of their Oops, We Forgot To Run The Ball, games, and the USC pass rush will be an issue, but again, I do think they win.

And for the last of the first five underdog portion of the program, of course, a bulldog …

6. Mississippi State vs Florida

Line: Florida -9.5
Pick: Mississippi State
- Game Preview, Prediction

Georgia, at Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida State …

We’re well past the 90-minute mark in this Florida flick, and we all know what’s going to happen with that remaining schedule. We just want to see how, exactly, the ship is going to sink.

Mississippi State had two weeks off since the 31-9 loss to Texas A&M, and the Gators just lost by 17 to the Aggies to close a rough 1-3 run.

Florida’s defense should be solid, but in what will be a low-scoring game, that offense doesn’t have the pop to pull this off by ten without the Bulldogs screwing up.

5. Maryland vs UCLA

Line: Point Total 52.5
Pick: Over
- Game Preview, Prediction

UCLA scored 42 on Penn State and 38 against Michigan State. Maryland doesn’t have a rock of a defense, and it's far more competent offensively than the Spartans.

At least one side will take care of most of the heavy lifting to get the over. The reverse of that is …

4. LSU vs Vanderbilt

Line: Point Total 48.5
Pick: Under
- Game Preview, Prediction

I Don’t Believe In Vanderbilt: Part 1

Fade this hard if you do think the Commodores are that great, but at this point, beating Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia State, and Utah State is … blah.

The Alabama defense isn’t anything special, and Diego Pavia and the boys only hung 14 on the board in Tuscaloosa.

LSU’s defense is that special, the offense is sputtering - at least so far (and that’s the fear; it’s overdue)- and all five of the team’s games against FBS teams weren’t even close to getting to 49 points.

That's all thanks to the D that allowed ten points or fewer in four of them.

And if you liked that, you’ll LOVE …

3. LSU vs Vanderbilt

Line: Vanderbilt -2.5
Pick: LSU
- Game Preview, Prediction

I Don’t Believe In Vanderbilt: Part 2

I thought it was a misprint when the line first came out.

(Warning: I could be a tad off, but it feels like I’m 0-1,419-1 all-time when I have that "this line is SO wrong" thought, because I’m obviously missing something - which is the only reason why this isn’t No. 1.)

2. Florida Atlantic vs USF

Line: Point Total 73.5
Pick: Over

For those who know how I roll, this is the first time I’ve brought this out in 2025 …

If you can find a game with a point total of 70 or more, you ALWAYS take the under. If it doesn’t work, then that means the game was a blast, and you chalk it up the loss to the cost of the entertainment value.

It’s so hard to get to 70 points. One team could have a bad day. A quarterback could be injured. A parachute might not open.

There are 1,387 things that could go wrong to miss an over on a total that big, and …

This one time, I’m ignoring everything I believe and hold dear.

These two don’t like each other. USF will keep rubbing it in if it has the shot, and unless something goes wildly wrong, it’ll put up at least 50 points on its own, and more likely 60.

The last three Bulls game totals were 99, 78, and 77. FAU’s last three were 81, 48, and 86.

1. USC vs Notre Dame

Line: Point Total 61.5
Pick: Over
- Game Preview, Prediction

Last year’s game was 49-35 Irish, and the two offenses are far better this year.

That, and I’m not buying that either of these defenses turned a corner in any meaningful way.

The 2023 game? 48-20 (68) Notre Dame. In 2022, it was 38-27 (65) USC

Including dates against Illinois, Michigan, and Purdue, USC has yet to score fewer than 31 points.

Notre Dame packed it in a bit against Boise State in the 28-7 win - give the Broncos some credit, though - and the Miami game only got to 51 total. It’ll be responsible for at least 30 on its own without a problem, and it’ll have to keep pressing to pull this off.