2025 ReliaQuest Bowl Prediction: Iowa vs Vanderbilt

Mike Gundy is done, and Kyle Whittingham is at Michigan. Those were the only two coaches within shouting distance of Kirk Ferentz when it came to coaches who were with the same team the longest.

Ferentz took over the Iowa gig in 1999 - Air Force's Troy Calhoun is next up, starting in 2007, and Dabo is next, taking on Clemson in 2009.

Take out 2020, and Iowa has won eight or more games in every season since 2014, but it has just one bowl victory since 2019.

Clark Lea has only been at Vanderbilt since 2021, but helped by the addition of Diego Pavia, this is the second bowl appearance in a row after winning the 2024 Birmingham.

This is the first time the two programs have ever played each other.

How To Watch Iowa vs Vanderbilt

Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

- Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Lines
- 2026 Early Heisman Top 10

Why Iowa Will Win

It's not like Vanderbilt beat anyone this year.

Missouri? It really didn't beat anyone, and it just got exposed by Virginia in the Gator.

LSU? Please. Tennessee? Meh. That's not to say the Commodores aren't good, but Iowa pushed Indiana to the end, had Oregon in deep trouble until the final moments, and fought with USC.

Beating the Commodores starts with stuffing the run. That includes keeping Pavia from taking off and making things happen, and with time to prepare, few are better at focusing on keeping one guy from taking off than Iowa.

Oregon and Nebraska went off on the ground against the Hawkeyes, but their run defense was a rock against everyone else.

Vanderbilt lives on third down conversions. passing efficiency, and owning the time of possession battle.

It's Iowa. It's amazing at holding firm on third downs, and few can control the tempo like it does. That, and it's eighth in the nation in pass efficiency defense. However ...

Why Vanderbilt Will Win

Iowa was terrific against Indiana, wonderful against Oregon, and tough against USC - and lost all three games.

No one works harder at making sure the other team stays in the game than Iowa.

And no, Vanderbilt hasn't beaten anyone great. It didn't have to face Georgia, Ole Miss, or Oklahoma, and it lost to Alabama and Texas, but the offense still worked against the Longhorns and ran well against the Tide.

There's a flip side to the Iowa style when it comes to the running game. Iowa wins when it gets to 200 yards on the ground, and the Commodore defense won't give that up.

The Hawkeyes are 0-3 when coming up with fewer than 133 yards, and Vanderbilt has allowed more than that just three times all year. It's not like the Ferentz offense is about to turn it loose and start ripping it up with the passing game.

And, of course ...

Iowa vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Betting Lines

Mr. Pavia is playing.

For all his Pavianess, and all the stuff after he didn't win the Heisman, he's still the ultimate competitor, and he really is that good.

And Iowa hasn't faced a running quarterback all year.

This has the feel of one of those maddening Iowa performances when things work, but it'll refuse to break character as it hopes to grind things out, rely on the defense, and expect something to come from punt returner extraordinaire Kaden Wetjen.

Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski will start to get the passing game going a bit late in the game, but it'll stall, Pavia will get one late shot, and he'll pull through with a drive leading to a walk-off field goal.

Vanderbilt 23, Iowa 20
Line: Vanderbilt -4.5, o/u: 46.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 4

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.