2025 Sun Bowl Prediction: Duke vs Arizona State

How To Watch Duke vs Arizona State

Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Game Time: 2:00 pm ET
TV: CBS
Location: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX

- Bowl Schedule, Predictions, Lines
- 2026 Early Heisman Top 10

Why Duke Will Win

The main man is back.

Say what you will about the modern era and the transfer portal, but Duke got its money's worth out of quarterback Darian Mensah. The former Tulane Green Wave came to Durham, ripped it up, won an ACC Championship, and he's sticking around for another year.

There are a few Duke opt-outs, but all things considered, this is about as close as any Power Four team can get to being close to full capacity.

On the flip side, Arizona State is missing a ton.

Several Sun Devils are likely to leave, but might give it a go, but star quarterback Sam Leavitt is in the portal after missing a chunk of the second half of the season hurt. Jordyn Tyson is a future NFL star receiver, and overall, the ASU starting lineup won't be close to what it should be.

No one gives it the old college try like Arizona State does, but it hasn't been good all year offensively on third downs, the passing game is blah without Leavitt, and Duke should be able to set a good pace with the offense.

Throw in the turnover margin factor - the Blue Devils forced multiple takeaways six times in the last ten games, and ...

Why Arizona State Will Win

Again, as cornball as this sounds, it's totally true. Kenny Dillingham teams will always bring it.

Yeah, there are very, very big missing parts, and yeah, the offense should have problems if it has to open it up, but this team had no business getting to eight wins.

It's still the only team to beat Texas Tech, five of the last six wins were by single-digits, and that's because this bunch just found a way.

The offense is just balanced enough to be a problem for the Duke defense, but it starts with the running game.

Quarterback Jeff Sims ran for over 200 in the blowout win over Colorado, and 228 in the stunning win over Iowa State, and he needs to take off and control the game as much as he can. And he needs some help from his defense.

Again, turnover margin is a massive deal for Duke. It doesn't turn it over much, but it's 6-0 when it doesn't give the ball away, and 2-5 when it does. Arizona State is 8-1 when forcing a turnover, 0-3 when it doesn't, and ...

Duke vs Arizona State Prediction, Betting Lines

Duke was a strange team.

Mensah was amazing, but the defense had a nightmare of a time getting off the field. It couldn't get by UConn, lost to Tulane, and yet showed up massive when it had to in the ACC Championship against Virginia.

The problem here is the running quarterback factor. Sims needs to have himself a game against the Blue Devils, but he's not a high-powered passer. Duke's run defense wasn't great, but the secondary was the bigger problem - ASU won't be able to exploit that enough.

However, even with all of the lost parts, the Arizona State pass rush will be terrific, Dillingham's team will be great early on, and this should turn out to be just good enough to keep America from flipping over to the hot mess that will be Michigan vs Texas in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

Arizona State 26, Duke 24 
Line: Duke -3, o/u: 49.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3.5

College Football Playoff Predictions
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs Miami
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Ole Miss

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.