2026 SEC Championship odds updated after Week 5

Week 5 brought another round of movement to the SEC championship picture as conference play continued across the league. Polymarket traders have updated their outlook on which program will ultimately claim the conference title, with Georgia maintaining the strongest position in the prediction market.

Texas and Alabama make up the next tier, while LSU, Florida and Ole Miss remain within striking distance entering the heart of October. Missouri made one of the weekend’s biggest statements by dominating Florida, while Tennessee stayed in the race with a victory over Auburn.

Meanwhile, Several other programs are already facing significant pressure after multiple conference losses through the first five weeks. Here’s how all 16 SEC teams stack up in the latest 2026 SEC Championship prediction market odds on Polymarket.

Oklahoma — 1%

Oklahoma spent Week 5 on a bye and enters its next matchup at 2-2 overall with an 0-1 record in conference play. The Sooners have struggled to consistently generate offense, averaging just 22 points per game through the first month of the season.

Things do not get any easier with No. 1 Texas waiting in the Red River rivalry, giving Oklahoma an immediate opportunity to change the direction of its season. Traders currently view the Sooners as a long shot in the SEC title market.

Vanderbilt — 2%

Vanderbilt remains near the bottom of the market after falling to 3-2 overall and 0-2 in SEC play with a 38-14 loss to Georgia. The Commodores rank 14th in the conference in total offense, and finding enough production against the league’s better defenses has been difficult through the opening portion of the schedule.

Vanderbilt now hosts Ole Miss in another challenging conference matchup. Traders are giving the Commodores only a narrow path to getting back into the SEC championship race.

Kentucky — 2%

Kentucky owns the same odds despite improving to 4-1 overall and 2-1 in the SEC with a dramatic 35-34 overtime victory at South Carolina. The Wildcats have won three consecutive games and showed plenty of resilience in completing the largest road comeback in program history.

A home matchup against LSU provides an opportunity for Will Stein’s team to earn the kind of victory that could significantly shift perception. For now, however, Polymarket traders remain cautious about Kentucky’s chances of reaching the SEC Championship Game.

Arkansas — 2%

Arkansas continues to sit near the bottom of the SEC championship market after a 34-7 loss to Texas A&M dropped the Razorbacks to 2-3 overall and 0-2 in conference play. Arkansas ranks last in the league in scoring and 15th in points allowed, creating problems on both sides of the football as the schedule becomes more difficult.

Tennessee comes to town next, leaving little room for another setback. The Razorbacks need a quick turnaround before traders have any reason to take a stronger position on them.

Auburn — 2%

Auburn dropped to 3-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC action after falling 24-14 at Tennessee. The Tigers are currently outside the conference’s top 10 in both offense and defense, and consistency has become an issue after consecutive difficult league games.

Auburn receives a bye before returning to SEC play, giving the coaching staff an opportunity to address those shortcomings. With two conference losses already on the résumé, the market gives the Tigers little margin for error moving forward.

Texas A&M — 2%

Texas A&M got back on track with a convincing 34-7 victory over Arkansas, improving to 3-2 overall and 1-2 in the SEC. The Aggies still rank only 12th in the conference in scoring, but their defensive performance against the Razorbacks provided a needed boost after a difficult start to league play.

A road matchup with Missouri is next and represents an opportunity to make a much louder statement. Traders remain skeptical for now because two SEC losses have already put Texas A&M behind the pace.

South Carolina — 2%

South Carolina finds itself in a difficult position after a 35-34 overtime loss to Kentucky dropped the Gamecocks to 2-3 overall and 0-3 in conference play. Shane Beamer’s team came close to securing a much-needed victory but remains winless against SEC opponents and 0-2 against ranked teams.

The Gamecocks now travel to Florida looking to prevent the season from slipping further away. Their conference record explains why traders currently see very little edge in taking a position on South Carolina to win the SEC.

Mississippi State — 2%

Mississippi State suffered its first loss of the season in Week 5, falling 58-23 against Alabama after opening the year 4-0. Quarterback Kamario Taylor remains one of the conference’s most productive passers and ranks second in the SEC in passing yards, but the Crimson Tide provided a reminder of the gap the Bulldogs still need to close.

Mississippi State gets a bye before returning to action. Despite its strong overall record, the prediction market remains reserved about the Bulldogs’ chances of winning the conference.

Tennessee — 2%

Tennessee improved to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in SEC play by defeating Auburn 24-14, although the victory also raised questions at quarterback. George MacIntyre replaced Faizon Brandon and helped settle the offense, while DeSean Bishop carried the load with 220 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

The Volunteers also own the conference’s No. 3 scoring defense, giving them a reliable foundation moving forward. Tennessee travels to Arkansas next as traders continue to keep the Vols on the outskirts of the primary SEC championship contenders.

Missouri — 3%

Missouri produced one of the weekend’s most impressive results, crushing No. 8 Florida 45-17 to improve to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in SEC play. Austin Simmons threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns as the Tigers piled up 560 yards of offense, while the defense held Florida to just 17 points.

Missouri hosts Texas A&M next with an opportunity to build additional momentum. The market has not fully reacted to the Gators win yet, leaving the Tigers with longer odds than their Week 5 performance might suggest.

Ole Miss — 4%

Ole Miss comes out of its Week 5 bye at 3-1 overall and 1-1 in the SEC, giving Pete Golding’s team time to reset following a difficult loss at Florida. The Rebels remain dangerous offensively but rank last in the conference in run defense, a weakness the Gators exposed while rushing for 302 yards and six touchdowns.

Ole Miss travels to Vanderbilt next and has an opportunity to regain momentum. Traders still give the Rebels an outside path to the SEC title if they can navigate the remaining conference schedule.

Florida — 7%

Florida took a significant step backward in Week 5 when its unbeaten start ended with a 45-17 loss at Missouri. Jon Sumrall’s team entered the weekend riding considerable momentum after beating Auburn and Ole Miss, but the Gators allowed 560 yards against the Tigers and now rank 15th in the SEC in total defense.

Florida remains 4-1 overall and 2-1 in conference play, meaning the larger goals remain attainable. The market still gives the Gators a meaningful position despite their first loss of the season.

LSU — 9%

LSU enters the next stage of its schedule at 4-1 overall and 1-1 in conference play after routing McNeese 63-14. The Tigers have split their two games against ranked opponents and remain firmly in the SEC championship conversation, although their earlier loss leaves less room for mistakes moving forward.

A road matchup at Kentucky is next before the schedule becomes even more difficult later in the season. Polymarket traders continue to view Lane Kiffin’s team as the strongest challenger outside the conference’s clear top three.

Alabama — 22%

Alabama continues to climb after improving to 5-0 overall and 3-0 in SEC play with a dominant 58-23 victory at Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide are scoring 48 points per game, while their defense has consistently created game-changing plays and recorded a pick-six in four consecutive contests.

Keelon Russell has also helped the offense emerge as one of the most explosive units in the country. Alabama now welcomes Georgia to Tuscaloosa in a matchup that could cause another major shift in the SEC championship market.

Texas — 24%

Texas remains unbeaten at 4-0 and occupies the second-strongest position in the Polymarket SEC championship market. The Longhorns spent Week 5 on a bye after earning an important road victory at Tennessee and currently own the conference’s No. 1 scoring defense.

Steve Sarkisian’s team has already built a résumé that includes victories over Ohio State and Tennessee, giving traders plenty of reasons to remain confident. The Red River matchup against Oklahoma is next as Texas looks to maintain its place among the conference favorites.

Georgia — 35%

Georgia remains the market leader after improving to 5-0 overall and 3-0 in SEC play with a 38-14 victory over Vanderbilt. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are averaging 51.4 points per game, combining an explosive offense with the physical style that has made Georgia one of the SEC’s most consistent championship contenders.

The biggest test yet arrives next with a road trip to Alabama, where the Bulldogs can strengthen their grip on the conference race. For now, Polymarket traders continue to give Georgia the clearest edge to capture the 2026 SEC Championship.

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