3 games that could make or break Michigan football's 2025 season

In some ways, Michigan football is catching a break in its 2025 schedule by avoiding Penn State and Oregon—two programs that should be in the top 10 when official preseason polls are released and who could be competing for a Big Ten title by season's end.

But the Wolverines' schedule also shouldn't be considered a cake walk, as there are still some marquee matchups that will play a major part in shaping how Team 146 is remembered.

Here are three "make or break" games for Michigan as we approach the college football season.

Sept. 6: At Oklahoma

The Wolverines are expected to walk over their Week 1 and Week 3 opponents (New Mexico and Central Michigan).

But it's Michigan's Week 2 game that has the attention of the college football world as Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore travels to Norman to take on his alma mater in an out of conference game that could either positively or negatively set the tone for the Wolverines' season.

In 2024, Michigan welcomed Texas to the Big House in a game that had a similar feel. That time, things did not go well for Moore's team in a 31-12 drubbing to the Longhorns, and quite frankly, it took the team awhile to recover from that one.

Michigan will need to step up against an Oklahoma team that shouldn't be as well put together as last year's Texas team was, but one that should be drastically improved from its 6-7 record in 2024.

The matchup will be a battle of two new starting quarterbacks at the respective programs, with the Sooners bringing in John Mateer from Washington State, while the Wolverines will likely run out true freshman Bryce Underwood. Each quarterback will attempt to resurrect offenses that limped through last season.

Each defense has the capability of being top 10 in the nation in what is expected to be a physical game that will be won in the trenches despite the new and improved weapons for each team on the offensive side of the ball.

A win signals the Wolverines are on the right track and likely a playoff contender moving forward. While a loss early in the season wouldn't necessarily mean the death of the Wolverines altogether, it would raise questions about whether they are destined for anything noteworthy in 2025.

Oct 11: At USC

Although the Trojans posted a pedestrian 7-6 record in 2024, they could have had a much different outlook as Lincoln Riley's team lost five games by one score.

USC has to play more consistent football late in games to be successful, but if they can even get just a couple one-score games to go in its favor this season, 2025 could be a nice turnaround year for the Trojans.

For Michigan, the game against USC comes at the midway point of the schedule. Although the game at Nebraska a few weeks earlier could get tricky, the Wolverines should find themselves in a position to be a clear favorite in just about all of their other Big Ten games outside of Ohio State in November if all goes well.

That makes the game against the Trojans that much more important for Michigan, as a win at the Rose Bowl against a solid USC team could catapult the team's momentum for the rest of conference play.

If Michigan drops the game at Oklahoma and/or the game at Nebraska, the Wolverines could very well be fighting for their season by the time the game against the Trojans comes around in that scenario.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava showed flashes for the Trojans in the second half of last season in what is expected to be another high powered offensive attack, despite losing receivers Zachariah Branch, Duce Robinson and Kyron Hudson in the transfer portal.

Lincoln Riley's teams just reload on the offensive side of the ball, and 6-foot-4 receiver Ja'Kobi Lane, who led the team in receiving touchdowns last year, is back, along with tight end Lake McCree.

If USC's offensive line can get its issues fixed from last season, and the defense continues to improve, they will be a tough out for anyone as it's another game that could tilt the Wolverines' season in either a positive or negative direction.

Nov. 29: Vs. Ohio State

Obviously, right?

The Game is always one that is going to be of utmost importance for both Ohio State and Michigan, despite what either team's record is going in.

Although last year's version featured a Michigan team that was out of playoff competition at that point (with the Wolverines still coming away with the win in Columbus), it doesn't feel like that is going to be the case very often in the future with these two programs.

If either team drops a couple of games before this one, the Wolverines or Buckeyes could be potentially fighting for their CFP lives and in a "must win" situation.

If all goes perfectly for each team, there could be a spot in the Big Ten championship game on the line.

Either way, something will be on the line when the two heated rivals meet up in November, with the temperature of the rivalry not seeming to cool down any time soon.

Michigan has had Ohio State's number the past four years, primarily by winning the battle in the trenches.

Although the Wolverines lost Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham, they will still boast a deep and talented defensive line capable of giving OSU's O-line fits, led by the likes of Derrick Moore, TJ Guy, Rayshaun Benny and others.

The Buckeyes will also be breaking in a new quarterback, which very well could be redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, who transferred to the Buckeyes last season from Alabama after Nick Saban retired.

With sophomore standout receiver Jeremiah Smith back, with the support of fellow receivers Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss, the offense has a chance to be very dangerous once again.

But it's a team that lost a lot of talent from last year's national title team and has questions on both sides of the ball heading into the season. With that being said, there is still plenty of talent to work with on each side of the ball, and if it all meshes, the Buckeyes have a chance to be a contender again in 2025.

At this point, one has to wonder how much the mental side of things plays a part in this rivalry with the Wolverines winning four in a row. A fifth consecutive loss for Ryan Day to the Wolverines, even coming off a national championship season, would be a big blow for him.

Many unanswered questions that exist now should be answered for both teams by the time The Game comes around, and as always, will be one that can change trajectories for this season, but also legacies for years to come.

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