'Absolute fiction' that Tennessee will make the playoff, Paul Finebaum warns

Tennessee made the College Football Playoff for the first time last season, but long time SEC watcher Paul Finebaum doesn’t think the Vols will have a return engagement.

Some prominent changeover on their roster, most importantly at the quarterback position, will conspire to keep Big Orange out of the playoff picture in 2025.

“I love fiction, and that is absolute fiction,” Finebaum said. “Tennessee is not making it back to the playoff.”

Personnel losses on offense could be enough to kibosh the Vols’ postseason hopes, chiefly the departure of quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

“They lost Nico. They have Joey Aguilar, who went to App State, transferred to UCLA, and then to Tennessee, all in what seemed like about a half an hour,” he said. “Tennessee will be good, but they’re not good enough to make the playoff.”

Iamaleava was meant to take a much larger role in Tennessee’s offense after the departure of lead back Dylan Sampson to the NFL, but his exit left the offense in flux for a time.

Aguilar was a heralded addition after he threw for more than 3,000 yards in both his seasons as App State’s starter, leading the Sun Belt in passing a year ago.

He scored 56 touchdowns in that time, but also threw 24 interceptions, finishing last season with an interception ratio of 3.6 percent, outside the top 100 nationally for quarterbacks.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel commented on the loss of Iamaleava and its effect on the team when speaking at this year’s SEC Media Days.

“Our football team, they cared about Nico,” he said.

“Nico’s going to be a great player and he’s going to have a great career. I love Nico. It was hard for the players in that moment, but in leadership of any kind, having clear, consistent, transparent communication and also timely, in that it allows your people to handle it the best that they can.”

Heupel granted the loss of a quarterback is somewhat different than losing a player at any other position, but noted teams have to be prepared to weather that change.

“It’s quarterback. It’s unique in some way, but you’ve got to have a ‘next man up’ mentality,” he added.

“It’s going to happen to every team in college football across the landscape of the season. Quarterback’s no different in that way. Our guys have handled the change, transition, whatever you want to call it.

“Expectations may have changed from outside the building after that moment, but they haven’t changed inside the locker room.”

ESPN’s preseason football computer models are more bullish on the Volunteers than Finebaum is, predicting they’ll finish fifth in the SEC, and could win nine games.

But that’s probably not good enough to earn a place among the 12 College Football Playoff teams, so Big Orange definitely has some room to improve when the season starts.

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