Advanced Model Predicts Clemson's Matchup With Miami

This weekend, Clemson football will look to defend its home turf on Saturday night, welcoming in No. 4 Miami at Memorial Stadium in a primetime matchup. 

In a battle between two undefeated ACC teams, head coach Dabo Swinney’s group has a tall task with a top-5 opponent, only being given a 12.6% chance to win under the lights, according to ESPN Analytics. 

When looking at the advanced analytics, similar numbers tell the story. 

Versus Sports Simulator gives the edge to the Hurricanes, holding an 85% chance to leave Clemson with a win this weekend. The model predicts Miami to take home a 35-18 victory over the Tigers. 

Both teams tend to follow these types of scores, with the Hurricanes coming into Saturday’s contest averaging 53.5 points per game in their first four contests. That’s been third-best this season, only behind Florida and Georgia. 

Clemson’s identity has been through its defense, which has only allowed six points in the last six quarters. With a true freshman quarterback under center, the Tigers’ offense has seen growing pains but tremendous strides in their run game. 

The model has moved the needle on Tom Allen’s unit, giving the defense a B+ rating. Last week, it was graded a B-, getting better from a performance that featured two turnovers and only three points from Cal in last Friday’s win. Meanwhile, it doesn’t come as a surprise that Miami’s offense comes in with an A+ grade.

Heading into this season, this contest was a lot closer. Entering Week 1, Clemson had a 38% chance to win at home, but its slow start to the season, as well as Miami’s inverse season, has inflated the number in the Hurricanes’ favor. 

It’s important to note the difference in schedule the two teams have had as well, though. Clemson’s schedule is rated 24th-toughest by Versus, while Miami’s best opponent all season was Wake Forest, winning by double-digits. 

Most of the betting markets tend to line up with the model’s score. Miami is a 16.5-point favorite to win, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, lining up with the predicted line. The Tigers will need to be productive on offense to keep up with the Hurricanes, perhaps getting a key turnover as well, to force the potential upset. 

Disclaimer: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. from Death Valley, while the game will be broadcast on ABC.