Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction: The Diego Pavia Show Rolls On

The Commodores are 5-0, and they haven’t been close to challenged in blowout win after blowout win - and that includes South Carolina and Virginia Tech, too.

Meanwhile, poor old Alabama lost to Florida State to start the season, and … Bama 24, Georgia 21. Missouri and Tennessee might be next, but taking care of the Commodores will be tough enough.

How To Watch Alabama vs Vanderbilt

Saturday, October 4, 2025
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

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Why Vanderbilt Will Win

Is Pavia the 2011 version of Robert Griffin III, or is he Diego Manziel - no one tortured the Nick Saban Tide defenses like Johnny Football did.

Can Pavia possibly jump into the Heisman race as the veteran leader and playmaker who takes his team to a whole other level?

So far, Pavia is hitting 75% of his passes for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns with three picks, and he has run for almost 300 yards and two scores. There’s no fear factor here.

But it’s not just about 2.

The Commodore defensive front is living in opposing backfields, and on the other side, the Alabama defense isn’t. The pass rush isn’t there, and there shouldn't be too much pressure on Pavia.

Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos threw well, ran better, and gave the Tide D fits. Pavia has a similar style and should do the same, but …

Why Alabama Will Win

You don’t think Alabama is just a weeeeeeee bit sick of hearing the words Diego Pavia?

No, the defense isn’t getting into the backfield enough, but it’s been against the pass so far. Georgia couldn’t keep things moving last week in the 24-21 loss.

The D has yet to allow more than 155 yards through the air, and it’s been holding up great since the Florida State loss.

And yes, there’s another quarterback in this.

Ty Simpson is rolling, hitting the deep shots, averaging close to 300 yards per game, and he has yet to throw an interception.

The Kalen DeBoer offense is working now, and it’s not just Simpson when it comes to being careful. Bama hasn’t turned the ball over.

Can Alabama and Vanderbilt give us a second straight thriller?

This should be a back-and-forth fight, Vanderbilt will show that it really does have the talent and ability to be a major player in the SEC, and then …

Bama will go Bama.

As strong as Vandy has been, it has yet to face a passing game like what Alabama is bringing. Both defenses will struggle to get off the field, but the Tide will be a bit more explosive, and a jacked up defense will swarm all over Pavia in a few key situations in the second half.

Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Betting Lines

Alabama 37, Vanderbilt 20
Line: Alabama -10.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 4

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

- CFP Top 12 & Projections