Big 12 tables expansion, moves on to shaky future

The Big 12 announced on Monday that they wouldn't be adding any members to their ten school league at this time. The league in July unanimously voted to explore expansion but ultimately decided against it. While the issue is tabled for not, it isn't as simple as the conference just didn't feel like the time just wasn't right.

This is another blow to the almost comical trek for the Big 12 to have the respect of their fellow Power 5 conferences. Since the league was upset they were left out of the 2014-15 College Football Playoff, they have been on a mission to figure out what they need to do to stand out in major college football. They even hired a group to look at what they'd need to make it there and expansion was one of the suggestions. After deciding against it, the Big 12 watched the ACC announce a new network and a major grant of rights deal that whipped the league into a frenzy about adding two to four schools.

Monday, that went away. There have been rumors that their television partners at ESPN and FOX were pressuring them into not expanding. When the league decided that with 10 teams they would hold a conference championship game in 2017, the networks grew nervous that adding teams would significantly raise the price of their agreement even though the value of those teams wouldn't justify it. Basically, adding Houston and Cincinnati isn't worth $40 million more per year in rights fees.

There were also no slam dunks. Unlike the conference movements of the last 15 years, the Big 12 wasn't going to be getting anyone from another major conference. Their best bets were dipping into the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mountain West or independent BYU. Not exactly the Big Ten getting Nebraska and Maryland or the ACC raiding the Big East. 

Brigham Young University was once thought of as a sure thing but their stance on LGBTQ rights make them a controversial addition. Houston isn't popular among members who don't want to propel them into a higher stratosphere than themselves. Cincinnati adds Ohio for recruiting and a buddy to West Virginia, but they don't really move the needle either. Any of the other 15 or so candidates have their own issues and none are really exciting choices. 

Is expansion dead? For now and probably not until they get desperate again. They have no real reason to expand since they don't need to in order to hold a football championship game and the networks have obviously made clear that they aren't funding it. With no financial incentive, they aren't going to pursue it.

What does that mean for the schools left at the alter? All of them tried to play both sides of the fence by saying they love where they are at while actively throwing themselves at the Big 12. Really, there aren't any hard feelings since most of the AAC was attempting to get in there themselves. Sure, the dreams of more money and an easier access to big bowl games are now dashed, but for most of these schools it isn't a step back like some have already taken in recent years. Those leagues, and the leagues that would be purged in a domino effect, can now feel a bit safe that they will have some stability for now. Plus it doesn't hurt a league like the AAC that Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida and others were being looked at as Big 12 candidates and places those schools in a better light. In reality, only the fan bases wishing for a bigger league are really hurt.

What does that mean for the Big 12? The conference is as shaky as ever. Not only are those feelings that the league is just a loose confederation of schools still there, this entire ordeal knocks them down a peg. When the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 expanded, the networks threw down major money to those conferences. They told the Big 12 to stand pat. It is yet another embarrassing moment for a conference that's already been a bit of a laughingstock.

So now we look ahead to the 2023 season when the Big Ten has half its rights deal up and the other Power 5 conferences will see their television contracts up for bid again. This could set up another major realignment of those leagues with looting the Big 12 as a real possibility. Texas and Oklahoma would be attractive to nearly every one of those leagues. If they go, look for a raid of the conference like the Big East suffered earlier this decade.

The best bet is that, somehow, the Big 12 enjoys being a 10-team league while the other, larger, conferences have issues of being too big (it did happen to the WAC in the '90s and Big East this decade). Texas gets back into the elite status and Oklahoma can stick there. Plus, the league is filled with acting presidents, new presidents and ones who are moving on. For once, the league chose stability and they hope they can keep it that way.