Army vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction

The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Saturday, Dec. 28 with Army and Louisiana Tech meeting in the Independence Bowl. This game takes place at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La. This is the third all-time meeting between the Black Knights and Bulldogs on the gridiron. Army holds a 2-0 series edge over Louisiana Tech. 

Army fell short of a Commander-in-Chief's Trophy with a 31-13 loss to Navy on Dec. 14, but the '24 season still produced plenty of highlights for coach Jeff Monken. The Black Knights tied a single-season program record with 11 victories and won the American Athletic Conference title in their first year in the league. 

Louisiana Tech took a circuitous route to this game after a 5-7 finish in the regular season. Coach Sonny Cumbie's squad was not slated to play in this contest after the original matchups were announced. However, after a coaching change and numerous players hitting the portal, Marshall was forced to opt out of the Independence Bowl, allowing the Bulldogs to step into this matchup. Cumbie has yet to earn a winning season at the helm in Ruston, but Louisiana Tech showed progress with five victories in '24 and six of the team's defeats coming by 10 points or less.

Army owns a 7-3 record in overall postseason appearances. Monken is 4-1 in bowl trips with the Black Knights. This is Louisiana Tech's first postseason trek since 2020. The Bulldogs own an 8-4-1 record in bowl games.

Army vs. Louisiana Tech

Independence Bowl
Location: Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La.
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 28 at 9:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Army -14
Over/Under: 44.5
Announcers: Lowell Galindo, Fozzy Whittaker, and Tori Petry 

Why Army Will Win

Army was the better team in the regular season and is one of the biggest favorites of the bowl slate. 

The Black Knights lead the nation with 298.9 rushing yards a game and have rarely been held in check on the ground all year. Quarterback Bryson Daily rushed for 1,532 yards and 29 touchdowns in the regular season, with Noah Short (542 yards), Miles Stewart and Hayden Reed expected to handle the bulk of the work in the backfield with Kanye Udoh (1,117 yards) transferring to Arizona State.

When you combine a veteran offensive line, Daily's experience and production, and a prolific ground attack from the backfield, it's easy to see how this unit will overwhelm a shorthanded Louisiana Tech defense on Saturday night.

Army's defense hasn't gotten much credit nationally (and doesn't have to defend a ton of snaps thanks to the offense), but Monken's group is limiting teams to just 5.4 yards a play and 16.2 points a game. Additionally, the Black Knights limit big plays allowed (just nine of 40-plus yards) and have forced 19 takeaways in '24.

Why Louisiana Tech Will Win

Louisiana Tech caught a break with Marshall unable to play and is a heavy underdog. In other words, Cumbie and this staff have nothing to lose and should have plenty of fans with the Independence Bowl just over an hour from campus in Ruston.

Defensive improvement under new coordinator Jeremiah Johnson is a big reason why the Bulldogs nearly had six victories in the regular season. After allowing 33.4 points a game last year, Louisiana Tech limited opponents to 20.5 points a contest in '24. Also, this unit limited teams to 4.6 yards a snap and led Conference USA in rush defense this year. 

The improved rush defense is critical for Louisiana Tech, as it's no secret Army plans to deploy its ground game to win this one. However, the Bulldogs won't have tackle David Blay, end J'Dan Burnett, and linebacker Kolbe Fields available on Saturday night. With the absence of three key cogs against a tough Army offense, Johnson will have to find ways to create negative plays to get Monken's team off schedule.

Louisiana Tech's offense struggled (22.2 points a game in '24), but quarterback Evan Bullock (14 TDs, 2 INTs) can take advantage of an Army secondary that showed vulnerability in the advanced metrics (No. 90 in success rate).

Final Analysis

Both of these teams rank inside the top 15 nationally in time of possession and possessions could be limited if Army is able to get its style of play on track early in the first half. Louisiana Tech's showed marked improvement in the regular season but will have its hands full against Daily and the Black Knights' ground game. Expect a close game early, but Army pulls away in the second half to earn the programs 12th victory of '24.

Prediction: Army 31, Louisiana Tech 13