Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bears Preview and Predictions

When the Auburn Tigers line up against the Baylor Bears on Friday night at 7:00 p.m. CT, it will start what they hope is a march towards a successful season. The team sits at a crossroads. In all honesty, head coach Hugh Freeze's team needs to win for him to see a fourth season.

With that said, who wins? The following is a predictive analysis.

Bombs Away

Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson will want to throw, from the shotgun, downfield. Now, to be clear, that's not only what he wants to do, it's what he needs to do. As a result, he will probably be hot on two passes deep early, including one for a touchdown. 

For the game, Sawyer will complete less than 60% of his passes for two reasons. First, vertical passes are not usually high-percentage attempts. Most importantly, he will throw the ball a minimum of 35 times, because Auburn will shut down the run game and force him to drop back and let the ball go. Estimate something in the range of 23/41 for 270 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a fumble.

 Ground and Pound

Granted, everyone naturally assumes that the Tigers will jump out of the gate looking to launch passes all around the yard. New quarterback Jackson Arnold will account for three scores, but one will come via the run game. 

Additionally, the running back room will feast on Baylor as Auburn will march up and down the field against Dave Aranda's cobbled-together defensive front that will feature three new linebackers and at least one new defensive lineman. 

Offensive coordinator Derrick Nix is going to want to batter that newly constructed front. Envision combined stats of 33 carries and at least 145 yards and two scores. Auburn will control the time of possession. In boxing parlance, Auburn will trap Baylor on the ropes and attack with a methodical approach.

How It Happens

Robertson will catch Auburn's secondary napping early, leading to a big-play score. As a result, they will succeed through the air initially. Then, wanting to establish the ground game, Aranda will attempt to run the ball with force, which his team will fail miserably. Baylor will get their 20 carries, but will average less than 3.5 yards per carry.  

While All-American defensive end Keldric Faulk will flash, Baylor will try to double him. Subsequently, this is the moment for Malik Blocton and Keyron Crawford to combine their efforts and tally 1.5 sacks and 3 tackles for loss between them. Faulk will get home a couple of times, dropping Robertson at least once. 

Moreover, after early struggles, the secondary will tighten up and lock the Bears down after halftime. Provided that Jackson Arnold practices excellent ball security, Auburn could score late to break the game open. That depends on his schematic comfort and willingness to push the issue.

Prediction:

Auburn 30
Baylor 25