The Auburn Tigers will begin their 2025 home football schedule by hosting the Ball State Cardinals at 6:30 CST on the Plains. It will be the third matchup between the two schools, the most recent a 54-30 victory for the Tigers in 2009.
Auburn is a 43.5-point favorite heading into Saturday night’s game. Should this be an easy second win for Auburn, or do the Tigers need to be wary of the Cardinals?
The main problem for Ball State should be its offensive line. The Cardinals allowed 33 sacks last year, tied for No. 108 in the FBS, and 4 sacks in their 31-0 Week 1 loss to the Purdue Boilermakers.
Auburn’s defensive line was ferocious in the Tigers’ win over Baylor, combining for five tackles for loss and four sacks. Four different players registered at least half of a sack.
The Cardinals were also ranked No. 124 out of 133 FBS teams in total defense last season, allowing 454.9 yards per game and 279.6 passing yards per game. That trend doesn’t look like it’s changed. Ball State allowed 433 total yards and 340 passing yards to the Boilermakers, a team that finished 1-11 last season.
Purdue also rushed for 93 yards against the Cardinals, exposing a run defense that lost a lot of its talent from 2024. If the same Auburn offense that rushed for 307 yards against Baylor shows up, it could be a very long night for the Ball State defense.
Additionally, the Cardinals don’t have many defenders athletic enough to hang with Jackson Arnold if he decides to take off.
Though, given the porousness of the Ball State passing defense and an injury to Damari Alston, I would expect Hugh Freeze and the Tigers to lean into the passing attack. Freeze also expressed a desire to get freshman quarterback Deuce Knight in, saying that if Arnold comes out Knight would be the first to enter in his place.
“There’s no doubt,” Freeze said this week. “I mean all of us are anxious to see if we can throw and run the right routes and be on time and be effective in that. Because you’re gonna have to have that.
“We’re obviously confident in the receivers’ ability, but it’s not just about ability. It’s about us being on the same page, on the same timing, us protecting, and all of those things that come with it.
“They want to throw and catch it,” Freeze said with a grin. “But we’re gonna play to win the game, whatever that means.”
Jordan-Hare should be in full voice with a night game scheduled, with the potential to rattle a team that was hurt in the transfer portal.
If Ball State wants to put up a fight in this one, the Cardinals are going to need to replace some key pieces. Last year’s Cardinal quarterback Kadin Semonza now finds himself at Tulane, and the top two receivers Cam Pickett and Justin Bowick transferred to Kansas and Illinois, respectively.
The team’s leading pass catcher was tight end Tanner Koziol, who also transferred and is now a Houston Cougar.
As for the rushing attack, the leading rusher for the Cardinals in 2024 was running back Braedon Sloan, who was also fourth on the team in receiving yards. Sloan graduated and has not been signed by an NFL team to this point. Backup running back Vaughn Pemberton also transferred and is now a Boston College Eagle.
The new look offense struggled against Purdue, gaining just 203 yards over the course of the game. Redshirt senior Kiael Kelly, a converted wideout, started at quarterback for the Cardinals. Kelly completed 10 passes on 16 attempts in Week 1 for just 87 yards, throwing neither a touchdown nor an interception. He also added 63 rushing yards on 22 carries.
The Cardinals brought in Kennesaw State’s Qua Ashley and Purdue’s Elijah Jackson to play running back in the offseason. Ashley saw the bulk of the touches in Week 1, carrying the ball 10 times for 45 yards. No other back had more than 7 yards.
The receiver room was a mix-and-match project against the Boilermakers, as eight players caught a pass. However, only two players caught more than one. Ty Robinson recorded 2 catches for 9 yards and Ashley recorded 2 catches for 2 yards.
As for the defense, linebacker Joey Stemler led the Cardinals with 5 tackles, and Nathan Voorhis recorded the team’s lone Week 1 sack. Ball State runs a fairly conservative quarters scheme, content to keep the opposing offense in front of them. Because of the conservative scheme, the Cardinals often struggle to create negative plays, especially against the run.
Overall, the Auburn faithful should not have much to worry about vs. Ball State.
Prediction:
Auburn 51 Ball State 6
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