Auburn vs. Baylor score prediction by expert football model

Auburn and Baylor meet in this Week 1 college football season opener in a battle of SEC and Big 12 hopefuls on Friday night. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Yet to eclipse the .500 mark in two seasons on The Plains, head coach Hugh Freeze looks to make a statement not just for Auburn, but for the SEC, in this non-conference matchup against one of several genuine Big 12 title contenders this season.

Baylor started 2-4 last season, but went on a six-game win streak and finished with eight wins, and returns the core of a talented offense, including quarterback Sawyer Robertson and running back Bryson Washington.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Tigers and Bears meet on the same field tonight?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of what to expect as Auburn and Baylor square off in this Week 1 college football game.

Auburn vs. Baylor score prediction

This week, the models are going with the SEC side of this matchup on the road, but by the slimmest of margins.

SP+ predicts that Auburn will defeat Baylor by a projected score of 28 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 1 point.

The model gives the Tigers a very narrow 53 percent chance to win the game outright, while Baylor has an expected 47 percent shot at victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

Auburn is a 2.5 point favorite against Baylor on the road, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Auburn at -125 and for Baylor at +104 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Baylor +2.5
• Auburn to win -125
• Bet under 58.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are sticking with the visitors from the SEC over their Big 12 counterparts, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Auburn is getting 51 percent of bets to win the game by at least a field goal and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Baylor will either defeat Auburn outright in an upset at home, or lose the matchup by fewer than three points.

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Computer prediction

But other analytical football models are also siding with the Bears over the Tigers in this Week 1 college football opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Baylor is the narrow favorite over Auburn according to the FPI’s metrics, coming out ahead in 51.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 48.2 percent of sims.

But the models forecast a similar point margin in the matchup, as Baylor is projected to be just 1.9 points better than Auburn on the same field, according to the computers.

How good is the College Football Power Index in its predictions?

Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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How to watch Auburn vs. Baylor

When: Fri., Aug. 29
Where: Waco, Tex.

Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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