The Baylor Bears are coming off a disappointing loss to the Auburn Tigers to start the 2025 season. Unfortunately for the Bears, the team isn't projected to fare any better as they travel to take on the favored No. 17-ranked SMU Mustangs. SMU is coming off a strong performance against the East Texas A&M Lions, winning 42-13 and starting the season 1-0.
The Bears' biggest struggle on Saturday was containing Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold, as the junior signal caller ran for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 attempts. And it won't be long until we see the green and gold take on another quarterback that can make plays with his legs. SMU draws up plenty of quarterback-designed runs for Kevin Jennings, and while he was held in check in Week 1, it could be a glaring problem for the Bears.
Despite Jennings being a threat as a runner, his abilities as a passer can't be undermined. The redshirt junior has the arm talent to make throws in the intermediate area and has shown the ability to complete impressive throws towards the boundary. Jennings is also a smart football player and can process a defense presnap at a high level.
SMU lost five key receivers to graduation in 2024, but that wasn't a problem for the Mustangs in their Week 1 victory. Redshirt Senior Romello Brinson had an electric 7 catch game, leading to a touchdown and 121 yards, just 14 yards short of matching his 2024 total. Brinson wasn't the only Mustangs receiver to log a good game, however, as true freshman Jalen Cooper had 5 receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown in his collegiate debut.
The Mustangs saw seven different ball carriers in Week 1, with running back Chris Johnson leading the team in yards with 44. SMU ran for a total of 140 yards against East Texas A&M with an average of 4.2 yards per carry. It's clear the Mustangs emphasized keeping fresh legs on the field and have a favorable matchup with the Bears, who allowed 307 yards rushing against Auburn.
Turnovers will be the key to the game for Baylor. SMU turned the ball over three times in their victory, losing two fumbles and throwing an interception. While the Bears weren't able to record any takeaways in their loss, they also didn't turn the ball over. Despite not taking care of the ball, the Mustangs' defense was disruptive, forcing three turnovers themselves, which included a 95-yard pick-six for Ahmaad Moses. The senior safety also logged 4 tackles against the Lions, winning him the ACC Defensive Back of the Week award.
SMU's defense only allowed 13 points in Week 1, but didn't have a truly impressive showing. The Mustangs' defense allowed 351 total yards. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson could be in for a big day as the SMU defense allowed 244 yards passing to the East Texas A&M offense. While the Lions weren't the most efficient passing, finishing 20/43 for 2 interceptions and no touchdowns, Robertson's Week 1 momentum could leak into their matchup with the Mustangs.
Baylor will have a tough path to a win playing away against a ranked team, but SMU's sloppy Week 1 win against a lesser opponent puts the Mustangs on upset watch for Week 2. SMU's roster is full of talent, but the Bears will have a chance to flip the script after their season-opening loss by taking advantage of the Mustangs' weaknesses and coming out with the win.
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