Baylor vs LSU Prediction, Pick, Texas Bowl Odds for Tuesday, Dec. 31

• Baylor vs LSU Spread: Baylor -3.5 (-110) · LSU +3.5 (-110)
• Baylor vs LSU Over/Under: 60.5 Points
• Baylor vs LSU Moneyline: Baylor -170 · LSU +145

Baylor vs LSU Preview

Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Key Portal News

There are some notable injuries and transfer portal news for the Bears that are worth mentioning before diving into the breakdown. Here’s a list of players who entered the portal, all thanks to Stuckey’s terrific bowl opt-out/transfer list that’s updated daily:

Baylor Transfer Portal

• S Corey Gordon (376 snaps)
• DE Trey Wilson (228 snaps; committed to SMU)
• OL Alvin Ebosele (176 snaps)
• DL Kaian Roberts Day (91 snaps)
• Backup QB Dequan Finn

It’s also important to note a few injuries for the Bears. Cornerback Carl Williams hasn’t played since Week 10, while outside linebackers Steve Linton and Garmon Randolph also missed the finale. However, Linton and Williams were recently seen at practice in full pads.

The biggest takeaway, though, is that the Bears don’t have any opt-outs. They’ve built a ton of momentum from their late stretch in the regular season, and they will have the motivational edge.

LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Opt-Outs a Problem

The Tigers had a disappointing 2024 season, and the number of players opting out or entering the portal reflects that. If you told me anybody besides QB Garrett Nussmeier cares about this game, I’d call you a liar.

Here’s the laundry list of portal and opt-out players for the Tigers, per Stuckey:

LSU Transfer Portal

• Starting WR CJ Daniels (committed to Miami)
• Starting S Sage Ryan (committed to Ole Miss)
• TE Ka’Morreun Pimpton (141 snaps)
• DL Jay’viar Suggs (133 snaps)
• WR Shelton Sampson (104 snaps)
• CB JK Johnson (113 snaps; last played Week 5)
• OLB Da’Shawn Womack (103 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
• S Jordan Allen (111 snaps)
• S Kylin Jackson (50 snaps)
• Backup QB AJ Swann

LSU Opt-Outs

• LT Will Campbell
• RT Emery Jones
• TE Mason Taylor
• WR Kyren Lacy
• S Major Burns

More importantly, LSU’s starting offensive tackles and tight end declared for the NFL Draft. The offensive line will consist of three first-year starters, which spells disaster.

LSU arguably had the best offensive line in the SEC, so Nussmeier will have to handle some hiccups during the contest. The Tigers’ lack of motivation and questionable roster heading into the game gives me little faith they can pull off the upset.

Baylor vs LSU Matchup Analysis

Offense

Defense

Edge Rush Success 39 60

LSU Offense vs. Baylor Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge Rush Success 98 13

Pace of Play / Other

Baylor vs LSU Pick & Prediction

I see a lot of advantages for the Baylor offense throughout the contest. The Bears finish the regular season top-45 in both Rush and Pass Success Rate.

Not only that, but the Bears were 43rd in Line Yards and 13th in Havoc allowed. Given the state of the LSU roster, I expect the Bears to have their way on the offensive side of the ball.

There’s a reason why the spread has moved so much since it opened: the missing pieces for the Tigers.

If that wasn’t convincing enough, the Bears were also in the top 50 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. I’m a little worried about the Baylor defense, even with all of the opt-outs for LSU.

The Bears ranked outside the top 70 in many defensive metrics, including 118th in PFF Coverage grade. I know Nussmeier won’t have his usual weapons and offensive linemen, but he’s talented enough to take advantage of a bad Baylor secondary.

Baylor also ranked 22nd in seconds per play, so I expect it to move up and down the field quickly.

The best betting approach for the matchup is the Baylor team total over. This will eliminate the worry of the Baylor secondary getting exposed, and we could solely focus on the advantages the Bears have on the offensive side of the ball.

We saw how well the Bears offense was clicking down the stretch, and it nearly led them to the Big 12 Championship Championship.

Quarterback Sawyer Robertson improved as the year passed, so I expect him to do a lot of damage on New Year’s Eve.

Don’t overthink this; the Bears will have a significant motivational and talent advantage over the Tigers.

Pick: Baylor Team Total Over 31.5

Baylor vs LSU Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch

Baylor vs LSU Betting Trends

Baylor vs LSU Weather