Big 12 Football 2025 Predictions

Big 12 Championship Game: Kansas State over Arizona State

1. Kansas State

Kansas State has been a model of consistency under coach Chris Klieman. The program has won at least eight games in each of the last four years and is 18-9 in Big 12 contests since 2022. With a veteran roster returning, along with a favorable schedule, a return to the conference title game should be the expectation for the Wildcats.

Quarterback Avery Johnson is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. In his first year as the starter, Johnson averaged 255.2 total yards a game and accounted for 32 overall scores. New coordinator Matt Wells should help Johnson continue to refine his game (especially as a passer) and earn a place among the top quarterbacks in the nation. The junior has plenty of help in the backfield with Dylan Edwards and Joe Jackson providing a solid one-two punch. Top receiver Jayce Brown is also back, but more weapons need to emerge to help Johnson reach his potential. The offensive line is also in transition with three new starters.

Aiding Kansas State’s hopes of a Big 12 title is five returning starters off a defense that limited opponents to 5.2 yards a play last season. Linebacker Austin Romaine is one of the best in college football, while the line is arguably tops in the Big 12. Coordinator Joe Klanderman has some shuffling to do in the secondary. 

2. Arizona State

Arizona State was one of college football’s biggest surprises in 2024. Behind rising star coach Kenny Dillingham, the Sun Devils exceeded all expectations with a Big 12 title and nearly upset Texas in the College Football Playoff. But make no mistake: Last season was no fluke. Arizona State has plenty of staying power and will contend for a spot in the playoff and Big 12 title once again.

Running back Cam Skattebo will be missed, but the Sun Devils shouldn’t miss a beat on offense. That’s due to the return of quarterback Sam Leavitt after a breakout debut in Tempe, with receiver Jordyn Tyson among the best in college football. Replacing Skattebo’s production could be a committee effort, with Army transfer Kanye Udoh, Kyson Brown, and Raleek Brown all handling carries. Four starters are back to form one of the Big 12’s top offensive lines.

Although the offense garnered most of the attention for last year’s run, Arizona State’s defense also deserved its share of credit. Under coordinator Brian Ward, this unit held teams to 22.6 points a contest and 5.2 yards a play. With nine starters returning, the Sun Devils could have the Big 12’s top defenses in ‘25.

3. Texas Tech

Not only was Texas Tech one of the biggest winners of college football’s offseason, coach Joey McGuire’s team will be among the most intriguing teams to watch this fall. The Red Raiders spent big-time NIL dollars this offseason to upgrade a roster that the program hopes will translate to winning a Big 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. After going 6-3 in league play last season, Texas Tech’s additions and improvements through the portal might be enough to get this team over the hump.

The Red Raiders have all of the ingredients to have one of the Big 12’s top offenses. Quarterback Behren Morton is expected to return to full strength after offseason shoulder surgery. He will have help coming from the portal to bolster the receiving corps, including Reggie Virgil (Miami, Ohio), along with Micah Hudson’s decision to return to Lubbock after transferring earlier in the offseason. But the biggest help to Morton should come in the trenches. After struggling up front in ‘24, Texas Tech added four transfers to upgrade this unit, including Howard Sampson (North Carolina) and Will Jados (Miami, Ohio). Running back Tahj Brooks will be missed, but Quinten Joyner and J’Koby Williams will keep the ground game on track.

Defense has been a long-running issue for Texas Tech. However, the hire of coordinator Shiel Wood from Houston, along with a handful of portal additions, has provided optimism for this unit to take a step forward. The biggest acquisitions for McGuire came up front. Ends David Bailey and Romello Height will create havoc off the edge, while UCF transfer Lee Hunter can fortify the interior. Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts form a solid duo at linebacker, while McGuire is counting on a couple of transfers to help improve a struggling pass defense.

4. Iowa State

The 2024 season was a historic one for Iowa State. The 11 wins were the most for the program in a single year and the No. 15 final ranking in the Associated Press Top 25 poll was the second-highest mark in school history. And with 12 starters back, coach Matt Campbell’s team has all of the pieces in place to return to the league title game and hoist the Big 12 Championship for the first time.

Quarterback Rocco Becht is back to anchor an offense that averaged over 30 points a game last season. Becht averaged 273.1 total yards a contest in ‘24 and tied for fourth in the conference with 10 completions of 40-plus yards. However, Becht’s receiving corps is in transition with Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel off to the NFL. Transfers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF) are counted upon to slide into go-to roles on the outside. Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III lead the way in the backfield, while three starters return in the trenches.

Iowa State’s defense wasn’t up to its usual standard last year, but coordinator Jon Heacock’s group still finished No. 59 nationally in success rate. Injuries (especially to the linebacker group) hit this unit hard last season. A return to full strength by linebacker Caleb Bacon should provide a boost, while the rush defense will also benefit from having lineman Domonique Orange anchoring the front once again. A revamped secondary is Heacock’s biggest preseason concern.

5. Baylor

After a 2-4 start in 2024, coach Dave Aranda’s tenure at Baylor seemed to be in its final stretch. But instead of a complete collapse in the second half, the Bears surged to six straight wins and finished 8-5 after a bowl loss to LSU. With a favorable home schedule and 12 returning starters, Aranda is expected to have this team in the hunt for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

Quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s development in the second half of ‘24 was a big reason why Baylor finished the year on a tear. Robertson threw 22 touchdown tosses over his final eight games and finished second in the Big 12 for the year in quarterback rating (153.09). With Robertson and coordinator Jake Spavital having another offseason to mesh, this offense can find another gear in ‘25. Aiding that cause is running back Bryson Washington (1,028 yards) and receiver Josh Cameron (52 catches). Four starters are also back to form a strong offensive line.

Aranda needs a little more from his defense to make the Big 12 title game in ‘25. The Bears gave up too many big plays (16 of 40-plus allowed) and surrendered nearly six yards (5.97) a snap in conference action. Linebacker Keaton Thomas headlines five returning starters, and Aranda added help for all three levels from the portal. 

6. Utah

Utah entered 2024 as the preseason favorite to win the Big 12, but the season was quickly derailed by injuries, including starting quarterback Cam Rising. After the program’s first losing season (5-7) since ‘13, the Utes are primed for a significant rebound after coach Kyle Whittingham made a couple of key offseason adjustments.

Addressing an offense that managed only 5.2 yards a play and 23.6 points a contest was Whittingham’s top priority, and with coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier arriving from New Mexico as a package deal, this unit should show marked improvement. Dampier should be among the Big 12’s most dynamic signal-callers and has room to grow as a passer in ‘25. The line should be a strength with tackles Spencer Fano and Logan Lomu returning. However, Beck has to navigate significant turnover at receiver.

Defense is usually a strength in Salt Lake City and that was certainly the case last season. Despite the offensive shortcomings, Utah’s defense ranked second in the Big 12 in fewest points allowed (20.7 a game) and third in fewest yards per play (5.1). Expect this unit to remain dominant in ‘25 with end Logan Fano, linebacker Lander Barton, and safety Smith Snowden leading the cast of returning players.

7. BYU

BYU improved its win total by six (5-7 to 11-2) in its second trip through the Big 12. Coach Kalani Sitake’s squad also just missed a spot in the conference title game after late losses to Arizona State and Kansas. Although there are holes to fill, the Cougars should remain in the mix for the Big 12 Championship.

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s development was instrumental to BYU’s improvement last season. However, his ‘25 status is uncertain due to a civil lawsuit filed in May. McCae Hillstead, Stanford transfer Bear Bachmeier, and Treyson Bourguet round out the other quarterback options for coordinator Aaron Roderick. Running back LJ Martin (718 yards) is a rising star in the backfield, while Chase Roberts returns as the No. 1 target with Darius Lassiter and Keelan Marion (transfer to Miami) departing. Three starters are also gone from the line of scrimmage.

Sitake and coordinator Jay Hill guided BYU’s defense to No. 1 in the Big 12 in fewest yards per play allowed (4.9) and 19.6 points a contest. Maintaining that production with three returning starters won’t be easy. However, the two-deep is still stocked with talent, including linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly, and defensive tackle Keanu Tanuvasa. A rebuilt secondary is the biggest concern for Sitake. 

8. Kansas

Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks entered 2024 with expectations of contending for a Big 12 title. However, those hopes were dashed early on. Quarterback Jalon Daniels was rusty in a return from a season-ending injury suffered in ‘23 and Kansas started slow as a result last year. However, the Jayhawks found their stride late in the season by winning four out of their last six matchups, including victories against Iowa State, Colorado, and BYU.

With another offseason to get back on track, Daniels should return to a spot among the top quarterbacks in the Big 12. The senior will be working with a new play-caller, as Jim Zebrowski and Matt Lubick will handle the coordinator role following Jeff Grimes’ departure to Wisconsin. Devin Neal will be missed, but Daniel Hishaw and Iowa transfer Leshon Williams still form a standout backfield. The line is in transition with three new starters, and the receiving corps was decimated by departures. Look for Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson to emerge as one of Daniels’ top targets.

The defense is also in transition for Leipold. Long-time Leipold lieutenant Brian Borland retired at the end of ‘24, with D.K. McDonald promoted into the play-caller role. Just three starters are back for McDonald, but similar to the offense, Leipold landed help from the portal. Linebackers Bangally Kamara (South Carolina) and Joseph Sipp (Bowling Green), end Justice Finkley (Texas), and defensive backs DJ Graham (Utah State) and Lyrik Rawls (Oklahoma State) are slated for big roles. Seniors Dean Miller, D.J. Withers, and Tommy Dunn provide a solid foundation up front.

9. TCU

Not much separates No. 1 and No. 9 in the projected finish for the Big 12. TCU surged at the end of ‘24 by winning six out of its final seven games and optimism is high in Fort Worth that momentum will carry over into this fall.

Quarterback Josh Hoover returns after finishing second in the Big 12 in yards per game (303.8), and the receiving corps still has plenty of talent despite losing Savion Williams, Jack Bech, and JP Richardson. Eric McAlister should push for All-Big 12 honors as the team’s No. 1 target, with transfers Jordan Dwyer (Idaho) and Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) rounding out the top options for Hoover. If TCU is going to challenge for a spot in the Big 12 title game, improvement up front and with its ground attack is a must. The Horned Frogs managed only 3.7 yards a carry in ‘24.

TCU’s defense showed signs of improvement under first-year coordinator Andy Avalos last season. After giving up 5.74 yards a snap in Big 12 play in ‘23, the Horned Frogs cut that total to 5.4 last year. With six starters back, Avalos should build on that progress. Safety Bud Clark is back as one of this unit’s key leaders to lead a pass defense that ranked No. 42 nationally in success rate last year. But improvement is needed against the run after TCU finished 12th in the conference. 

10. Colorado

Replicating last season’s run at the Big 12 title and 9-4 record won’t be easy for coach Deion Sanders’ team in 2025. With quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter off to the NFL, a transition year is likely in order. However, the Buffaloes still have plenty of staying power thanks to Sanders’ efforts to reshape the roster through the portal and on the recruiting trail.

Maintaining a high-powered offense in ‘25 starts at the quarterback spot with an ongoing competition between Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and true freshman Julian Lewis. Salter is expected to start, but Lewis will be hard to keep on the sidelines. The Buffaloes also landed several transfers in hopes of boosting the play in the trenches, while new additions from the portal (Joseph Williams and Sincere Brown) are being counted upon to replace Hunter and others in the receiving corps.

Under first-year coordinator Robert Livingston, Colorado’s defense showed marked improvement in its play, holding teams to 5.01 yards a snap. Just three starters are back, and similar to the offense, Sanders dipped into the portal for help at all three levels. Alabama transfer Jehiem Oatis is expected to make an impact up front, with Martavius French (UTSA) and Reginald Hughes (Jacksonville State) set to form a solid second level. Cornerback DJ McKinney is one of the Big 12’s most underrated players entering ‘25.

11. Houston

As expected, coach Willie Fritz’s debut at Houston in 2024 was a rebuilding year with a 4-8 record. However, as Fritz has shown throughout his coaching career, his programs only get better in Year 2 and beyond. Don’t be surprised if the Cougars make a massive jump forward in the Big 12 standings.

Big changes are coming to Houston’s offense. After this unit ranked last in the Big 12 in scoring (14 points a game) and yards per play (4.87), Fritz dismissed coordinator Kevin Barbay and brought in his old Tulane play-caller Slade Nagle to direct this attack in ‘25. Not only have the Cougars upgraded on their staff, but the personnel has improved as well. Texas A&M transfer quarterback Conner Weigman is eager to live up to his recruiting hype after an up-and-down tenure in College Station. A fresh start in Houston should help Weigman’s career. Also, Fritz added several transfers to bolster a struggling offensive line and in the passing attack with the arrival of tight end Tanner Koziol (Ball State/Wisconsin) and receivers Amare Thomas and Harvey Broussard. Rice transfer running back Dean Connors is another versatile weapon for Nagle to deploy.

Defense wasn’t Houston’s problem last year. Despite an anemic offense leaving it vulnerable, the Cougars held teams to 22.9 points a contest. Fritz hired Austin Armstrong from Florida to replace Shiel Wood (left for Texas Tech), and while there are holes to fill, the overall play of this unit shouldn’t slip much. The late spring departures of cornerback Jeremiah Wilson and safety AJ Haulcy were a setback to the secondary. Fritz added help from the portal to alleviate those losses, while the front is in better shape with Carlos Allen and Brandon Mack II returning.

12. Cincinnati 

The Bearcats showed small signs of progress in coach Scott Satterfield’s second season. After going 3-9 in 2023, Cincinnati just missed a bowl with a 5-7 record. The pressure is building on Satterfield, but the schedule features enough favorable games to push for a postseason trip in ‘25.

Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is a big reason why the Bearcats can exceed last year’s win total. In his first season at Cincinnati, Sorsby threw for 2,813 yards and 18 touchdowns to only seven picks and ranked third in the conference in completion rate (64 percent). Sorsby’s experience and play is critical to bridge the gap to a revamped supporting cast from the portal. Tawee Walker (Wisconsin) and Evan Pryor will team up to replace Corey Kiner’s production on the ground. Tight end Joe Royer is one of the best in college football at his position, but the Bearcats lost their top four statistical receivers from ‘24. The offensive line returns only two starters, but transfers Joe Cotton (South Dakota) and Taran Tyo (Ball State) were key additions from the portal.

Cincinnati’s defense cut its points allowed in Big 12 play from 32.8 in 2023 to 25.7 last season under first-year coordinator Tyson Veidt. For this unit to take a step forward again, Veidt and Satterfield need key contributions from the portal to restock a secondary hit hard by departures. However, the outlook is brighter up front with lineman Dontay Corleone and linebacker Jake Goladay returning. 

13. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State surprisingly bottomed out in 2024 with a 3-9 record and an 0-9 mark in Big 12 play. The performance of both sides of the ball collapsed, with the Cowboys averaging only 22 points in Big 12 play and giving up 40.7 a contest. Following the worst season of his extended tenure, coach Mike Gundy was forced to make significant changes and took a salary cut of $1 million. Will those changes pay off in ‘25?

New offensive coordinator Doug Meacham essentially inherits a blank slate. The Cowboys will have five new starters along the line and lost significant production at running back and receiver. Gundy hit the transfer portal hard for help at all of those positions, as well as the quarterback spot with TCU transfer Hauss Hejny battling Zane Flores for the starting job.

Three starters return for new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. However, similar to the offensive side, transfers are expected to make significant contributions at all three levels. Up front, De’Marion Thomas (Vanderbilt) and Taje McCoy (Colorado) headline the newcomers, while former Akron standout Bryan McCoy anchors the second level. Cornerback Cam Smith and safety Dylan Smith return to lead the way on the back end.

14. West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez’s return to Morgantown is one of the Big 12’s most intriguing storylines for 2025. The Mountaineers are navigating a massive roster overhaul and face a brutal schedule. However, Rodriguez has won here before and knows how to get the most out of the roster. This fall could be a rebuild year to set the stage for better results in 2026 and beyond.

Rodriguez’s track record of building prolific offenses will be tested this season. West Virginia enters the fall with a completely revamped offensive line, an ongoing quarterback battle between transfer Jaylen Henderson and Nicco Marchiol, and a developing receiving corps that was hit hard by departures. However, there are zero concerns at running back with Jahiem White leading the way, while transfers Tye Edwards (Northern Iowa) and Jaylan Knighton (SMU) providing depth.

Hiring coordinator Zac Alley away from Oklahoma was a huge get for Rodriguez and West Virginia’s defense. This unit massively struggled in 2024, allowing 31.9 points a contest and giving up over six yards a snap. Alley has just one returning starter to work with in Edward Vesterinen. However, there are promising transfers at every level, including UTSA edge rusher Jimmori Robinson and safety Fred Perry.

15. Arizona

After a disappointing 4-8 debut in 2024, pressure is already building on Arizona coach Brent Brennan. The Wildcats returned enough personnel from a 10-win team in ‘23 to contend for a finish in the top half of the Big 12 last fall. Instead, Arizona stumbled to one victory over its last seven games.

Brennan took steps to address last year’s setback by hiring a new play-caller (Seth Doege) and reshaped the roster through the portal. A handful of those acquisitions came along the offensive line to bolster a thin unit, and at receiver to alleviate the loss of standout Tetairoa McMillan. But if the Wildcats are going to at least return to a bowl, quarterback Noah Fifita must get back on track after an up-and-down sophomore campaign last year.

Change is also coming on defense. Former New Mexico coach Danny Gonzales takes over as the defensive signal-caller after Arizona allowed 33.2 points in Big 12 play last season. Injuries hit this group hard in ‘24, which allows for a rebound with better luck this fall. The secondary should be a strength with Treydan Stukes, Dalton Johnson, and Genesis Smith returning. Improving the play of the front is critical for Gonzales after Arizona allowed 180.5 rushing yards in Big 12 play last season.

16. UCF

Scott Frost’s tenure at his alma mater (Nebraska) didn’t work out, but a return to familiar surroundings in Orlando where he led UCF to a 13-0 record in 2017 could be what both sides need. The Knights hope to climb up the Big 12 standings in ‘25 and beyond, while Frost has the potential to rebound in a lower-pressure situation.

Frost and offensive coordinator Steve Cooper have work to do in order to get UCF’s offense among the best in the Big 12. The quarterback battle between Cam Fancher, Tayven Jackson, and Jacurri Brown will continue into the fall, with Jackson holding a slight edge. The receiving corps and offensive line are both in major rebuild mode, but the running back group is solid with Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon.

With only three starters back, it could be tough for UCF’s defense to significantly improve on last year’s defensive output. In Big 12 play, the Knights gave up 31.3 points a contest and finished 91st nationally in pass defense success rate. The strength of the ‘25 unit is up front with Malachi Lawrence and Nyjalik Kelly leading the way. Expect transfers to bolster the linebacker and defensive back units.