Birmingham Bowl Game 2023: Duke vs. Troy prediction, pick

The second weekend of the 2023-24 College Football Bowl Season kicks things off on Saturday with seven games on the schedule, the first being the Birmingham Bowl as resurgent Power Five school Duke, undergoing a ton of change on the sideline and especially at quarterback, lines up against Group of Five contender and Sun Belt conference champion Troy.

Duke started off the 2023 season with a statement upset win over then-No. 9 Clemson at home and inched up the rankings before an injury to quarterback Riley Leonard slowed the team's progress, losing four of its final six games.

Troy dropped two of its first three games of the season, but didn't lose again in 10 games, culminating in a win over Appalachian State in the Sun Belt title game, posting an 11-2 record thanks in part to a passing attack that ranks top-35 nationally and a scoring defense that is 10th by allowing just 17.2 points per game.

Duke vs. Troy prediction, preview

When: Sat., Dec. 23
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Birmingham Bowl 2023 game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Troy -7
Total: 44.5 points
Moneyline: Troy -270 | Duke +220
FPI pick: Duke 57.1% to win

What to watch for

1. The new guys. Both these schools lost their respective head coaches to other schools: Mike Elko departed Duke for Texas A&M, and Jon Sumrall left for Tulane. In their place, assistant coach Trooper Taylor and defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato, respectively, will serve as interim coaches on the sidelines for this game.

2. Troy on the ground. Trojans back Kimani Vidal should be the centerpiece of his team's offense in the game. He finished No. 2 in the country with 1,582 rushing yards on the year and scored 14 touchdowns, culminating in a 233 yard, 5 touchdown performance in the Sun Belt championship game, his third game of at least 200 yards. Duke was respectable against the run, thanks to a skilled front seven unit, allowing just over 146 yards on the ground, and held opponents to 3.93 yards per carry, but suffered notable losses on that side of the ball.

3. Duke at the line. With a new face at quarterback after Riley Leonard's transfer, expect the Blue Devils to place their emphasis on the defensive front. Duke has compiled 76 tackles for loss in 12 games this season and recorded at least five in 10 of those matchups. Moreover, the Blue Devils rank 29th nationally by allowing just 5.15 yards per play, good for 4th in the ACC.

Duke vs. Troy prediction

Duke is not a credible threat moving the ball in the air on a consistent basis, despite boasting confident pass protection, as the line could waver over time when facing a very competent Troy pass rush that plays its best football on third down and will impact redshirt quarterback Henry Belin's rhythm.

In a game defined by personnel losses, the players Duke won't have on its defensive front seven — linemen RJ Oben and Aeneas Peebles, and linebacker Dorian Mausi —  could be the most consequential. That's in addition to leading tailback Jordan Waters. 

College Football HQ picks...

• Troy wins 28-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over