Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones

 The 2025 Big 12 home opener for the Bearcats football team is also arguably the biggest game of the Scott Satterfield era thus far. UC welcomes No. 14 Iowa State to Nippert Stadium on Saturday for a noon ET kickoff on ESPN2.

The Bearcats enter this game 3-1 to ISU's 5-0 record and hold a 48.5% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor, while the betting line is set at -1.5 points in favor of UC. The point total is 54.5. Cincinnati is 39th in Bill Connelly's SP+ entering the game, while ISU is 26th.

UC is 0-5 against ranked opponents since going to the College Football Playoff in the 2021 season. It's a massive opportunity for them to get more than halfway to bowl eligibility this season.

"We can't wait for Saturday at noon to kick this thing off against a really good football team," Satterfield said this week."About Iowa State, Coach Campbell, I've known for a long time. I think he's one of the best coaches in the country, and his teams are always good. They're always ready to play. They're always coached well in all three phases. 

"They’re defensively outstanding, one of the best defenses in the country year in and year out. They have a quarterback who has started over 30 football games. That's outstanding. He's a winner. He makes things go for offense. Obviously, a great challenge for us, and we're looking forward to it.”

Cincinnati is 0-2 against the Cyclones as Big 12 members.

Offensive Key To The Game: Sorsby Keeps Cookin

Brendan Sorsby's elevated play throughout this season has him ranked atop the Pro Football Focus quarterback grades through four games, and he gets another great opportunity to light it up on Saturday. The chemistry with his receivers should be even tighter than it was last week, when he bombed out the Kansas secondary for 388 yards and two passing touchdowns.

Cincinnati has been able to move the ball at will on the ground and through the air in no small part because of Sorsby's dynamic ability (third nationally with 8.06 yards per play). His matchup against ISU is getting more palatable by the day. The Cyclones will be missing four of their top seven defensive backs, including their top two cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper.

It leaves ISU in a shaky spot, having relied on the backend to power the defense across this 5-0 run (top-35 nationally in Pro Football Focus coverage grading and pass efficiency allowed). They haven't been effective at all getting to the quarterback, and Sorsby destroys defenses when kept clean, especially ISU's quarters-heavy coverage (61% success rate this season).

ISU boasts one of the top run defenses by efficiency and will have star defensive tackle Domonique Orange on the field to plug up rush lanes (3.89 yards per carry allowed, sixth in EPA/rush allowed).

"Both defenses were doing good things, but sometimes it's just the offense clicking and putting points on the board," Sorsby said about getting into offensive shootouts. "I thought we had that sense going into halftime that we would have to keep scoring. Going into the week, we knew what kind of offense they had. They do a bunch of different things, they're explosive, and Jalon (Daniels) is a great quarterback."

The Bearcats have some serious offensive advantages on paper here as one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the country so far. Add in the deep knowledge of this 3-3-5 ISU system from current UC defensive coordinator and old ISU LBs coach Tyson Veidt, and you get even sounder preparation for a red-hot unit.

If Sorsby can dice up this beat-up secondary like he's done the past three games, then the offense will be able to move the ball smoothly all game.

Defensive Key To The Game: Get Off The Field On Late Downs

ISU can grind you into a pulp on offense.

It's a less efficient group than UC's had this season, but veteran Rocco Becht is no slouch, entering this game with a 77.6 ESPN QBR (24th nationally). The Cyclones do a great job of sustaining drives and converting on late downs (10th in quality drive rate, 38th in third/fourth down success rate).

That's a bad mixture for a rough Cincinnati defense so far this season (75th in EPA margin). The Bearcats hemorrhage long drives and have been terrible on late downs as they try to get off the field (107th in late-down success rate, 110th in quality drive rate allowed).

The big savior has been the red zone defense so far (36.36% TD rate allowed in red zone, eighth-best nationally). Antwan Peek Jr. and Co. are putting the clamps down in that area, but it's a dangerous game to play with offenses that close to the end zone. Both of these quarterbacks have taken great care of the football so far, putting turnovers at a MASSIVE premium in this game.

Becht has a 2.1% turnover worth play rate on PFF, while Sorsby is at 1.5% (both are top 25 nationally). Cincinnati finding a way to get a third or fourth turnover this season could be a major difference in this contest, especially if they can do it in the red zone when the Cyclones inevitably move the football into that area.

It's a positive matchup for UC in that sense, as ISU's converted just 61.5% of its RZ trips into touchdowns (77th nationally). Dontay Corleone's return should create more push up the middle and increase the pressure on Becht compared to all the time in the world Daniels had to throw last week.

That's one of a few injury factors going Cincinnati's way, along with the kicker position. ISU has no healthy kicker who's made a field goal in their career, likely prompting even more aggression on fourth down (5-5 on fourth down tries this season). Stuffing one or two of those tries would essentially be the turnovers UC is looking for.

Prediction: 31-28 Bearcats

Season Predictions Record: 3-1

All advanced stats courtesy CFB Graphs.

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