College football picks against the spread for Week 1 games

Line: Ohio State -1.5

Ohio State has to replace far too much -- key blockers, its quarterback, two thousand-yard backs, elite edge rushers, and both coordinators -- to expect it will look its exact self in the opener.

Especially against a Texas defense that returns some ferocious pass rushers who should have an advantage against the Buckeyes’ protection, while Arch Manning gets a good first showing with some promising receivers stretching the field.

ATS pick: Texas +1.5

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Tennessee vs. Syracuse

Line: Tennessee -13.5

If this was last year, it would be intriguing to see Kyle McCord and the Orange receivers line up against what was a superb Tennessee secondary.

But the departure of McCord, who led college football in passing last season, and three of Syracuse’s top receiving targets should cut deeply into that production, especially against a Vols defense that should be dominant again this fall.

Tennessee will undergo its own hiccups offensively, installing Joey Aguilar at quarterback after Nico Iamaleava’s surprise defection, but he’s a proven factor at the position and dealing with superior skill threats, if inexperienced themselves.

ATS pick: Tennessee -13.5

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Alabama at Florida State

Line: Alabama -13.5

Who are the Seminoles? Last season was one to forget, a 2-10 disaster that put Mike Norvell’s tenure as head coach in some peril.

He went on a tear in the transfer portal in response, picking up names like the dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos and wideouts Duce Robinson and Squirrel White, to give this offense what should be an immediate upgrade.

And FSU’s linebacking corps should provide a credible challenge to an Alabama ground game that won’t have starter Jam Miller in the backfield, a dynamic that should keep this one closer than Bama fans would prefer in the first half.

But the overall quality of Alabama’s skill weapons and the protection in front of quarterback Ty Simpson will be enough to pull away in the second half.

ATS pick: Alabama -13.5

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LSU at Clemson

Line: Clemson -4.5

Two electric vertical offenses piloted by two of college football’s top quarterbacks is a recipe for a potential shootout in primetime.

Between the two, Clemson could have the final say owing to the quality of its defensive front seven rotation, a group that will generate consistent pressure against an LSU offensive line that replaces most of last season’s snaps.

That could ruffle Nussmeier in the pocket and throw this attack off schedule, especially if LSU is unable to counter it with a balanced approach running the ball.

Clemson’s principal weakness defensively last season was against the run, where it ranked 85th nationally, but we’ll see if new coordinator Tom Allen can change that.

Clemson has struggled against SEC opponents the last couple years, including two games against Georgia in which it was outscored 44-6.

Don’t expect anything close to that, but LSU appears to have more of a ground game than Clemson does right now and the receivers to credibly test that secondary.

ATS pick: LSU +4.5

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Notre Dame at Miami

Line: Notre Dame -2.5

Notre Dame has two notable advantages on the defensive side of the ball, ranking first in forced turnovers and fifth in scoring defense last season.

Some of those contributors are gone, but others like Boubacar Traore and Jordan Botelho are back to man the edges and present a serious challenge to Carson Beck in the pocket.

Beck brings SEC pedigree to the quarterback position for the Hurricanes, and he’s standing behind one of college football’s more experienced and solid offensive lines, but most of this team’s receiving production from a year ago is gone.

Miami’s best team strength could be its front seven alignment when it defends the run, which will counter Notre Dame’s principal offensive strength, as Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to lead what should be a strong Irish backfield.

CJ Carr steps in at quarterback, working behind a good line and boasting receivers like Jaden Greathouse and transfer Malachi Fields, both of whom should get enough against a Hurricanes secondary that struggled last season.

ATS pick: Notre Dame -2.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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