Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9). Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

CFP semifinal: Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 12/29/23

Michigan completed a second straight undefeated regular season. Last year, they could not advance past the semifinals but they have been building for the last few years, so an advance to the Championship Game is the logical next step. Alabama is no stranger to the College Football Playoffs, but after losing to Texas early on we were not sure if they would get here. They might be peaking at just the right time.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends and Odds

Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 — 5:05 p.m. ET
Spread: Michigan -1.5, Over/under 45, Alabama +102 | Michigan -122

This is a small number, telling us the teams are pretty evenly matched. I hope that is the case, but I also think it is very possible we will not get that outcome, just a feeling. Alabama is now an underdog for the second game in a row; they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game the other time. This is just the third time this season Michigan has been favored by less than a touchdown. In both previous times, they won and covered (against Ohio State and Penn State).

Three reasons Alabama can beat Michigan

Three reasons Michigan can beat Alabama

Picks for Alabama vs. Michigan

Michigan -1.5

This definitely looks like a battle of heavyweights. The question is whether it is going to be won by whoever makes the biggest plays or by whoever avoids mistakes. Alabama feels like the more explosive team, while Michigan has shown a great ability to execute. I am leaning to Big Blue because while Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has really come along this season, J.J. McCarthy has more experience and is just so efficient. In those aforementioned games against OSU and PSU, he completed better than 80% of his passes, and he has just one interception in his last 10 games. Michigan is not going to steamroll the Tide, but they have shown they can run over and around even the most stout defenses too. This game has slim margins all over the field and Michigan is where I am putting my money. Alabama will make them earn it.

More money has come in on Alabama so far and I have to admit they are hard to fade, especially in rare cases where they are the underdog. I would not be surprised to see this one finish at pick'em the way it is tracking so you can wait until the New Year to get down.

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