College Football Predictions: Best Week 5 trades

It’s been a rough week for USC. The Trojans lost at home to Oregon and during the game USC LB Desman Stephens II was ejected for targeting after trying to decapitate Oregon QB Dante Moore.

The loss has increased the “noise” about Lincoln Riley’s future at USC. Riley pushed back: “The reality is, we go on the type of run that I think this team can have and have the type of stretch that we can, then ain’t nobody going to (care).”

Preach, Lincoln. I know what a good run can do to the boo-birds. Make them disappear. In the past three weeks, I’m on a blistering 22-9 run against the spread, including an 8-2 mark last week.

If I were any hotter – and sitting in the stands – an ESPN cameraman would zoom in on me right now. 

Onto Week 5 using odds courtesy of Polymarket.

Liberty at Delaware, Friday

Today marks Day 2 of a 61-day stretch of either a college football or NFL game being played every single day. So, if you’re not excited about this matchup, remember what it feels like without football. Delaware could without starting QB Nick Minicucci, Conference USA’s preseason offense player of the year. Minicucci suffered a knee injury last week and was replaced by Braden Streeter, who completed only 2 of 16 passes for nine yards and two interceptions. Even when Minicucci was healthy, Liberty had the better offensive and defensive numbers.
My Position: Liberty to cover -6½ at 57%

Alabama at Mississippi State

After 32 games, Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama record is 24-8, the same as the Tide’s former coach/current insurance and Protect College Sports Act pitchman Nick Saban after 32 games. Yet, it wasn’t that long ago Alabama fans were critical of what DeBoer wore on the sideline. On the other sideline Saturday is Mississippi State’s Jeff Lebby. Bulldogs fans weren’t sure if they even wanted him on their sideline beyond this season, but Lebby and superstar QB Kamario Taylor are off to a 4-0 start and a No. 16 ranking. The Tide and QB Keelon Russell have the SEC’s No. 3 scoring offense (48 points per game), the Bulldogs are No. 4 (43 points per game). Buckle up, this one should be fun.
My Position: Over 58½ points at 56%

Navy at Air Force

While Alabama and Mississippi State will be a track meet, the Navy–Air Force game should be – what’s a polite way to put this? – much more methodical. There’s a simple rule in games between two service academies: take the under. In the past 20 years, the under has hit 79% of the time (48-13-2). Except last year when the Midshipmen and Falcons combined for 65 points. However, in the preceding years, the total points scored in the rivalry were: 41, 23, 23, 26 … you get the idea.
My Position: Under 47½ points at 56%

Ohio State at Iowa

Do you believe in miracles? No, not Iowa’s last-second win at Michigan last week or the Hawkeyes climbing to No. 14 this week. I mean ESPN taking College GameDay to a Big Ten game that isn’t Ohio State–Michigan. This marks the Buckeyes’ first visit to Iowa City since 2017. Ohio State has a clear talent edge, featuring arguably the nation’s best player in WR Jeremiah Smith, but the Buckeyes’ defense has been leaky – a huge drop from last year when Ohio State had the nation’s top defense that sent seven starters to the NFL Draft. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz can muck it as well as anyone and the Hawkeyes aren’t as offensively challenged as past years with QB Hank Brown. There’s also this caveat: when the road team is favored by 14 points or more in a game between two Top 15-ranked teams, the underdog is 7-2 against the spread.
My Position: Iowa to cover +14½ points at 52%

Oregon State at Colorado State

Colorado State coach Jim Mora was asked this week what’s the focus to improve for the Rams’ defense. “There’s a lot,” he said. Is there ever. The Rams have the nation’s third-worst defense, allowing 454 yards per game, and allow 7.35 yards per play, the nation’s second-worst average. So this is probably not the best time to face Oregon State QB Braden Atkinson, the nation’s second-leading passer (355 yards per game, 11 TDs, two interceptions). However, it’s the Rams, not the Beavers, that lead the Pac-12 in scoring (40.3 points per game).
My Position: Over 60½ points at 55%

Army at Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech enters off consecutive losses to LSU and Baylor and had an open date to get extra prep for facing Army’s option attack. The problem for the Bulldogs is the last time they faced the option, in the 2024 Independence Bowl vs. Army, they had a month to prepare and couldn’t slow down the Black Knights. Army run’s the nation’s most deliberate offense, averaging a play every 35.1 seconds. Once the Black Knights get the lead, they won’t give it up.
My Position: Army -1½ at 52%

Utah State at Boise State

This season marks the 20-year anniversary of Boise State’s legendary upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Greatest. Game. Ever. Who would have thought two decades later, Oklahoma would have left the Big 12 to occupy the SEC’s cellar and Boise State would be playing its first Pac-12 conference game against – wait a second … googling to double check – yes, Utah State is in the Pac-12. The Broncos’ conference home may change, but they’ll continue to dominate on the blue turf. Just not by three TDs.
My Position: Utah State to cover +21½ at 57%

Texas State at San Diego State

San Diego State is sick. Not the good sick, like cool. The bad sick, like an outbreak of mumps. The San Diego County Public Health Services confirmed 14 cases of mumps in the football program. San Diego State had 17 players on Thursday’s availability report, down from 32 players on Wednesday. Even before the outbreak, this was a great spot for Texas State. Both teams rank among the nation’s fastest 15 teams in plays per second. However, Texas State ranks 15th nationally in yards per play (7.82), while the Aztecs are only 125th (4.85).
My Position: Texas State to cover -6½ at 57%

Cincinnati at Arizona

Before the season, Cincinnati touted offensive linemen Evan Tengesdahl,  Joe Cotton and Taran Tyo in a “Pancake with Us” promotional blitz, which included sending pancake mix and syrup to the media. The Bearcats must know providing free food to sports writers is a tired cliché meant to buy positive coverage, right? By the way – Go Bearcats! Anyway, where was I? Behind their pancake-blocking, pancake-eating offensive line, the Bearcats have the Big 12’s No. 2 rushing offense, including RB Cole Tabb, who is averaging 11.1 yards per carry. Arizona, which has the Big 12’s worst rushing attack and didn’t send the media free food, counters with QB Noah Fifita, who leads the Big 12 in QB rating and is third in yards passing per game (283).
My Position: Cincinnati to cover +7½ at 55%

Last week: 8-2
Record this season: 30-19

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