College football Week 9: Top 25 betting guide

A 7.5 is a line that the oddsmakers throw up there when they want to get some action on the less likely side. It is interesting in this spot because WVU is a home dog and usually that plays well in conference play. I think TCU should still win with ease. 

Score Prediction: TCU 38 - West Virginia 19
WVU might put up a good fight early but they don't have the offense or defense to stay with the Frogs.

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Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions
Spread: Ohio State -14.5
Total: 60.5

Before the season started this looked like a spot where Ohio State might be in trouble, but now less so. The OSU offense has been spectacular this season and they look bound for a showdown with Michigan, who kind of put Penn State in their place recently. The Penn State offense has not quite clicked this season and if you can't score points it is very hard to challenge Ohio State. Penn State has not developed into the team I was expecting this season and injuries have hurt them too. 

This is only a big line because of the uniforms. Ohio State can beat anyone in the country by this margin and I don't see PSU doing enough to keep up, even at home.  

Score Prediction: Ohio State 41 - Penn State 20
This is a perfect teaser number of course but sticking with OSU until the Big Game makes sense. 

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Syracuse Orange
Spread: Syracuse -2.5
Total: 47.5

The Irish are trying to salvage what could have been a disaster of a season. Surprisingly, this is now a game that helps their profile more than it hurts it because Syracuse has been so good, including pushing Clemson in their recent game. Notre Dame is going to play Clemson too so this will give us an idea as to what to expect in that game too. This one is going to be all about who can get their running game going the best. 

I wish I had the look-ahead line for this one handy. It might have been ND -10. That does not make this a buying opportunity though. I like what I have seen from Syracuse and they can compete in a low-scoring game for sure. 

Score Prediction: Syracuse 24 - Notre Dame 21
This one might be even lower-scoring than that.

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Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Spread: Illinois -7.5
Total: 50.5

Illinois is not a great team but they are looking great to get into the Big Ten title game. Head coach Bret Bielema is really doing a great job, keeping it no frills and just executing. The Illini don't beat themselves. That is the exact opposite of Nebraska I suppose, hence the coaching switch. Since then Nebraska has been a little more steady of late, but not enough to think they are going to trip up Illinois. Though winning on the road in the Big Ten is tough. 

This is another line with a major shift from preseason to now. It is all very explainable though when you look at the respective seasons of these teams. That 7.5 says tease it though.  

Score Prediction: Illinois 31 - Nebraska 20
The Illini are the side but do what you can to get a better number. 

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Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs
Spread: Georgia -22.5
Total: 56.5

Georgia has looked mostly like the team we thought they would be this season. They are strong on defense and their offense has looked better than it did a year ago when they won it all. At Florida, they have some potential with QB Anthony Richardson but it has been hard to watch as they try and figure that all out. Their defense is nowhere near what it has been in the past, which is a big concern with such an inconsistent offense. 

This is a neutral-site game of course and that is a very big number. The last time it was this big was back in 2017 and the Dawgs cruised to an easy win, 34-7. I can see that happening again. 

Score Prediction:  Georgia 38 - Florida 14
There is not a ton of margin here even though the game will likely never be close. 

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5
Total: 63.5

Wake Forest is one of the best offensive teams in the country and they are so consistent in that area too. It shows you how strong of a season they are having again that they are solid favorites against, even on the road this week. That is not the norm at Wake. Louisville has been on a downward trend for a few seasons and the coach is on the hot seat right now. A win over Wake Forest would be a bit of a coup for the Cards right now. They can be alright on offense but their defense is suspect. 

That hook is not ideal but I still like this line a lot. Wake Forest is just going to keep coming until they get to 50 points and I don't see how Louisville keeps up. 

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 49 - Louisville 31
This line is another perfect teaser spot to get it under the 3 but Wake Forest is the right side at almost any number. 

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Cincinnati Bearcats at UCF Knights
Spread: UCF -1.5
Total: 56.5

These look like the two best teams in the AAC this season. Cincinnati is probably still at the top of the league but whoever wins this one will be in a great position to take the title. The Bearcats are doing all of the things they did a year ago but just with a lighter talent base. UCF was looking great until their surprise loss to ECU last week. They are super balanced on offense and good at home, that is why they are favored. 

The Bearcats crushed the Knights last season on the way to the Playoffs. This line is definitely saying this game should be close though. I like the UCF QB as a difference-maker.

Score Prediction:  UCF 38 - Cincinnati 34
I am curious to see if this line moves at all. We might be able to get an even better number on the Knights. 

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Oregon Ducks at Cal Bears
Spread: Oregon -17.5
Total: 58.5

Oregon is on cruise control right now. That is not necessarily a good thing for conference games but going to Cal should not be too much trouble for the Ducks. They are in a great spot to run the table and maybe get some playoff consideration. Cal is in a totally different spot, a win over the Ducks would make their season. They were solid against Washington last week but it is hard to see them keeping it as close against Oregon.

This line is a little bigger than I expected. That is not because I like Cal but because it can be hard to put up enough points to win big like that on the road. Especially against a team like Cal that does not play with pace at all. 

Score Prediction: Oregon 35 - Cal 17
The Ducks probably cover but this one is really close. 

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Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats
Spread: Kansas State -1.5
Total: 55.5.

The Big 12 is the best conference schedule because everyone plays everyone else. So far these teams are sitting behind TCU and that makes this sort of an elimination game. Whoever wins here is going to be still in the race and the other is going to need a lot of help. Look for lots of offense from both sides until they get close to the goal line. OSU has been explosive all season long and Kansas State can knock teams out with their killer running game. Both defenses are bend but don't break. 

This line is all about the location. KSU gets the nod at home and that makes sense. With such a small number you should go with whoever you think is going to win. 

Score Prediction: Kansas State 27 - Oklahoma State 24
The last team with the ball wins. There might not be as much scoring as you would think in this one. 

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Missouri Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks
Spread: South Carolina -3.5
Total: 46.5

South Carolina snuck into the polls with a win over Texas A&M last week. I am surprised it helped them so much, but they have shown progress this season under coach Shane Beamer. Mizzou seems to be pretty stuck and that is definitely not where you want to be in the SEC. There is just way too much talent and you are not going to just out-scheme teams. There is probably not a big gap here though in terms of overall talent. 

That is what the line is telling us too at just -3.5 for the home team. I do not like the Gamecocks a ton but the difference between these teams on Saturday is more than just the location. 

Score Prediction: South Carolina 27 - Missouri 16
This looks like a good value even though the 3.5 is very hooky.

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USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats
Spread: USC -15.5
Total: 76.5

This is a total mismatch. USC has one of the best offenses in the country and they should be recovered from their crushing loss to Utah a couple of weeks ago. The Trojans should be able to get whatever they want against Arizona. The Wildcats do appear to be improved but it might not show much in this matchup. Even if they have some success offensively against USC they won't be able to keep up. You have to keep matching the Trojans and very few teams can. 

This line is nothing provided that USC is not overlooking this contest. I think the loss and the time off have them more than right. 

Score Prediction: USC 52 - Arizona 24
I hate backing big chalk on the road but the Trojans can cover this. 

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Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers
Spread: Tennessee -11.5
Total: 61.5

Tennessee has been great, but they still have a lot more on the schedule and this is a real threat from Kentucky. The Wildcats are not the most talented team in the SEC but they have a legit QB and are very physical. They are a different challenge. Tennessee should have an easy time after what we have seen from them this season. Hendon Hooker has been close to flawless so now they have to avoid beating themselves as much as any opponent (other than Georgia looming).

This line opened a little higher than expected but it makes sense. Tennessee can definitely win each half by a TD to get the cover. 

Score Prediction: Tennessee 31 - Kentucky 14
I can see UK dragging this game into the mud, but Tennessee has not really been denied much this season.

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Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Michigan -22.5
Total: 54.5

This is not expected to be much of a game this season as Michigan State has totally fallen apart over the course of the season, while Michigan has gotten better with each game. Michigan has quickly become one of the best running teams in the country and they can beat you with the pass if need be too. If this game was on the road MSU might have a chance but it is hard to see how they are going to have any consistency against the Wolverines. 

This is a big number for a rivalry game but it is hard to find any part of what MSU is doing right now to build some confidence on. This number is justified.

Score Prediction: Michigan 45 - Michigan State 14
I just don't see how the rivalry piece is enough this season. 

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Ole Miss Rebels at Texas A&M Aggies
Spread: Ole Miss -1.5
Total: 54.5

I don't know why, but rooting against Texas A&M is kind of fun. They are off a bad loss to South Carolina but are back at home this week to host Ole Miss. The Aggies' offense has been a disaster this season and that is a problem because of all the pressure it puts on the defense. Ole Miss is not feeling much better after losing at LSU even though they were up big early. This game is why the SEC is so tough. There are no real off weeks. 

Ole Miss is the better team this season but they have to prove it by winning on the road in this spot. They should score enough to pressure the Aggies. 

Score: Ole Miss 30 - Texas A&M 17
I like this number. Ole Miss can win a low-scoring game too.

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Pitt Panthers at North Carolina Tar Heels
Spread: North Carolina -3.5
Total: 64.5

Who knows who is really any good in the ACC this season. Pitt has looked OK but less than expected while UNC has been better than I thought. At least for now. North Carolina is at home and that is going to matter quite a bit. UNC is 3-0 in the ACC, the only team yet to lose in their division. If they win this one they might wrap things up earlier than expected. UNC's offense has not missed a beat without Sam Howell this season. 

This is a good number with the home side. Pitts has been way too inconsistent this season to back them on the road against a team that will put pressure on them to score. 

Score Prediction: North Carolina 38 - Pitt 28
I think North Carolina will be in control throughout the game on Saturday.

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Stanford Cardinal at UCLA Bruins
Spread: UCLA -16.5
Total: 66.5

UCLA has to be disappointed with its loss to Oregon last week. The question is whether the Bruins can bounce back on Saturday at home. Stanford is the perfect opponent though because they are in the middle of a waste of a season as it is, and some think coach David Shaw might finally be on the hot seat. UCLA can have a devastatingly balanced offense when everything is clicking and Stanford's offense is one of the worst in the Pac-12 this season.

This is a big spread on the road for a team coming off a loss. I do think the gap is bigger between these programs than it has been in some time though. 

Score Prediction: UCLA 45 - Stanford 17
That is a lot of chalk but this is a very chalky season so I am comfortable with it.