Column: Diego Pavia Should Win the Heisman

Two seasons ago, Diego Pavia went into Jordan-Hare Stadium as the quarterback of New Mexico State and pulled off an upset that has not been forgotten, crushing the Auburn Tigers 31-10 and breaking a 49-game winning streak against nonconference opponents at home for Auburn. It was the first time the nation heard Pavia’s name.

During that offseason, Pavia transferred to Vanderbilt where he has proven to be a transformational quarterback for not just the football program, but the school as a whole. Pavia led Vanderbilt to a 7-6 season, which included a win in the Birmingham Bowl over Georgia Tech. Pavia’s impact was certainly felt his first year in Nashville. But the impact he has had in his second season? A legendary one that will be talked about generations from now.

In his second season at Vanderbilt, Pavia has led Vanderbilt to its first ever 10-win season in a program that has played football since 1890. Pavia is coming off a performance against Tennessee in which he became the first player in SEC history to have four consecutive 400-yard games. Yes, a Vanderbilt player recorded football history that had never been done by a player from even the conference powerhouses.

Pavia’s season has been so great that he is now in a tie with Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza for the best odds to win the Heisman on FanDuel Sportsbook at +160 as of Tuesday morning. In fact, it seems that the Heisman Trophy will come down to Mendoza, Pavia or Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. Some have argued Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love for the award, but it has become more clear that one of the three best quarterbacks in the country will end up winning college football’s most-coveted award.

The answer is clear: Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia should win the Heisman, and it should not be as close as it is right now.

As Pavia says when he lobbies for himself for the award, there are two things that matter most: stats and tape. So it is time to dig into the stats and other arguments as to why Pavia is the answer.

Stats

Diego Pavia:

Passing: 3,192 yards, 27 TD, 8 INT

Rushing: 826 yards, 9 TD

Total: 4,018 yards, 36 TD, 8 INT, 71.2 completion percentage

Fernando Mendoza:

Passing: 2,758 yards, 32 TD, 5 INT

Rushing: 243 yards, 6TD

Total: 3,001, 38 TD, 5 INT, 72.0 completion percentage

Julian Sayin:

Passing: 3,065, 30 TD, 5 INT

Rushing: 27 yards, 0 TD

Total: 3,092 yards, 30 TD, 5 INT, 78.9 completion percentage

That is right. Pavia has essentially 1,000 more total yards than the next closest player in Heisman contention. Pavia has more passing yards than the other two quarterbacks as well while having just two less total touchdowns than Mendoza and six more than Sayin. Yes, Pavia has three more interceptions than both quarterbacks but his total offensive production makes up for it.

Furthermore, an argument some people have used in favor of Mendoza rather than Pavia is that Mendoza has sat out a lot of games during the season because Indiana has blown out its opponents, and if Mendoza played more, his stats would be much closer to Pavia’s and therefore more deserving of the Heisman.

Time to pushback on that argument. Mendoza sat out a combined seven quarters throughout the season. He missed the back half of the fourth quarter against Kennesaw State, the final two quarters against Indiana State, the final quarter against Illinois, the last quarter-and-a-half against UCLA, the last quarter against Maryland and the last quarter against Purdue.

Though Mendoza sat out more, Pavia still sat out a total of 3.5 quarters throughout the season. Pavia sat out the final quarter against Charleston Southern, the last quarter-and-a-half against Georgia State, half a quarter against Utah State and the last half of the final quarter against Kentucky.

So yes, while Mendoza was on the bench more due to blowouts, it was only 3.5 quarters more. Meaning that Mendoza may have closed the yardage gap between him and Pavia by 200-250 yards. Even if that, Pavia would still have roughly 750-800 more yards than Mendoza had both played every offensive snap.

The advantage that both Sayin and Mendoza have that Pavia does not is an extra game to make their Heisman case. A 13th game could shift the odds if Mendoza or Sayin has a great game in the Big Ten Championship. Regardless, Pavia again would still have better stats overall than both quarterbacks with one less opportunity.

Another thing to consider is how big of a role each quarterback has played in the offense. For Pavia, the Vanderbilt offense runs through him. The Commodores’ offensive performance is largely dependent on how Diego Pavia performs. As stated, Pavia has over 4,000 total yards this season. Vanderbilt has 5,622 total offensive yards, meaning that Pavia is responsible for 71.5 percent of Vanderbilt’s yards as a team.

Compare that to Sayin and Mendoza. Indiana has a total of 5,806 offensive yards, meaning Mendoza has accounted for 51.7 percent of the total yardage. Sayin is responsible for 58.8 percent of Ohio State’s 5,262 yards.

Surrounding talent also has to do a lot with the success of each team, but Mendoza and Sayin have much more help around them than Pavia does. On top of the future NFL talent Sayin has to throw to, Sayin is also on the team that has the best defense in college football. Indiana, too, is fourth in college football total defense and second in scoring defense. 

Vanderbilt’s defense, however, is 54th in total defense and tied for 41st in scoring defense. This means that Pavia has almost had to play like a Heisman candidate to get his team to where it is at whereas Sayin and Mendoza could have played much worse and still be in a good position today.

It also says another thing as well: who is the anchor of Indiana and Ohio State? There is a strong argument that could be made that it is the Buckeyes’ defense that is the reason for its undefeated season and Indiana may have a similar argument given its defensive numbers. Not to mention, again, the future NFL players Sayin and Mendoza are playing with.

Moreover, the competition that each quarterback in this conversation has played against is worth acknowledging. The easier the schedule, the easier it makes for any quarterback with talent to put up great seasons.

Of the three, Pavia has played by far the hardest schedule. Vanderbilt ranks 22nd in the country in strength of schedule compared to Indiana at 45 and Ohio State at 46. Vanderbilt has played six games in which its opponent at the time was ranked whereas Ohio State has played three teams ranked at the time of the game and Indiana has played two.

Lastly, while this final point is not everything, it is worth at least a decent amount of consideration. And that final point is the impact each player has had on his team. This is another point in which Pavia has the best argument. 

Pavia’s impact on Vanderbilt University has been unlike any player in the country. Pavia has brought his team from the bottom of what has been regarded as the toughest conference in college football all the way into the College Football Playoff conversation. If it were not for Pavia, Vanderbilt would not even be near the playoff conversation. Pavia will leave Vanderbilt with a legacy that will never be forgotten by the school or the fanbase.

Pavia was the reason for Vanderbilt’s wins over LSU and Auburn. Had Pavia not escaped what would have been a fourth down sack on a possession that turned into a touchdown against LSU, Vanderbilt probably would not win that game. Had Pavia not led a double-digit comeback in the second half against Auburn to win in overtime, Vanderbilt would also have been eliminated from the playoff conversation weeks ago.

The other two quarterbacks cannot quite say the same. Mendoza is a great quarterback for Indiana and has made an impact on the university in his own right. Nobody is questioning that. Going 12-0 and getting to the conference title is certainly incredible. But even if Mendoza did not come back from his pick six in Oregon or have his “Heisman moment” against Penn State in the final seconds, Indiana would still be 10-2 and squarely in the playoff bubble conversation.

Because Ohio State’s defense has been so good, Sayin has had the luxury of playing with the lead all season long. In fact, Ohio State has only trailed for 26 minutes and nine seconds the entire season and not one second of that time was in the second half. Ohio State’s largest deficit all season occurred when Michigan led 6-0 before Ohio State won 27-9. 

In other words, Ohio State would probably still be 12-0 even if Sayin did not have the season he is having.

So the answer is clear: Pavia should win the Heisman trophy. No other player in the conversation has a better overall statline, responsible for more yards while doing it against tougher competition with less future NFL talent while simultaneously having a bigger impact on winning and on the school as a whole than Pavia.