Cotton Bowl 2025: Miami Vs. Ohio State Preview

Ohio State enters the College Football Playoff with the most dominant defense in the field. Anchored by four projected first-round picks and several other NFL prospects, the defense has only given up 8.2 points per game.

Miami’s defense is formidable as well. The Hurricanes are coming off a scrappy first-round win over the Texas A&M Aggies, allowing just three points to a talented offense. Star defensive end Reuben Bain Jr. led the way with three sacks, four tackles for loss, and a game-altering blocked field goal late.

That sets the stage for a game likely decided on offense. Both teams are built similarly, with strong offensive lines, productive running backs, and star skill-position players. The key difference may come at quarterback, where Ohio State’s Julian Sayin has been far more consistent than Miami’s Carson Beck.

Beck has shown flashes but has also struggled with turnovers, most notably a four-interception loss to the Louisville Cardinals in October. He was efficient but limited last week, throwing for just 103 yards and a touchdown. Against Ohio State’s defense, Beck will need to make timely throws, similar to how Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers had to in last year’s semifinal.

Sayin, meanwhile, has yet to have a poor outing this season. Even in the Buckeyes’ loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, he was solid outside of one interception. With Ryan Day calling plays and full confidence in his quarterback, Ohio State should trust Sayin to carry the offense when needed.

Matchups To Watch

Superstar wide receiver Jeremiah Smith will have a chance to shine against his hometown team and the program that finished second in his high school recruitment. With starting cornerback Damari Brown sidelined, Miami will need to bracket or shadow Smith to limit his impact.

Another critical matchup centers on the Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr and the Ohio State defense. Fletcher flipped his commitment from Ohio State to Miami late in his recruiting cycle, making him a familiar opponent for the Buckeyes’ staff. He gashed Texas A&M for 172 yards on 17 carries last week and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season. Ohio State linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles, however, have been among the nation’s best run-fit defenders, making sustained success on the ground difficult.

The battle in the trenches will also be decisive. The Hurricanes’ offensive line faces a stiff test against Ohio State’s front seven. While the Buckeyes have relied heavily on their front four to generate pressure, defensive coordinator Matt Patricia may need to mix in additional blitzes to disrupt Miami’s rhythm.

Betting Lines And Picks

Ohio State enters as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 40.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The Buckeyes sit at -350 on the moneyline, while Miami comes in at +285.

I like Ohio State to win and narrowly cover in what should be a highly competitive, intense matchup. While some may expect a No. 2 seed to handle a No. 10 seed comfortably, Miami is underrated and boasts one of the more talented rosters in the playoff field. If the Hurricanes put it all together, this will be a four-quarter dogfight, but the Buckeyes should ultimately prevail.

My pick: Ohio State 24, Miami 14.

End Of My Cotton Bowl Rant

The 2025 Cotton Bowl sets up as a high-stakes clash between two talented teams with everything on the line. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal will need a sharp performance in a marquee moment, while Ohio State must avoid self-inflicted mistakes. Expect a competitive, physical battle throughout.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. on December 31st in Arlington, Texas, airing on ESPN.