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Despite win over Purdue, Michigan football's College Football Playoff chances lower

Originally posted on Michigan Wolverines on SI
By Trent Knoop | Last updated Nov 3, 2025 10:08 AM ET

Michigan escaped Purdue this past weekend with a 21-16 win over the Boilermakers. With injuries mounting, Michigan relied on a successful rushing attack behind Jordan Marshall, and Michigan's defense had to make a few plays to stop the Purdue attack.

With the win, Michigan's ranking didn't change in the updated AP Top 25 Poll, but the advanced analytics dropped Michigan following its play against the Boilermakers. Entering last week, the Wolverines were ranked No. 15 in the Football Power Index, but following Michigan's close win, the Wolverines are now No. 19 in the FPI.

What is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Michigan's Remaining Odds

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With a 7-2 record, the Wolverines are still projected to go 8.8-3.2 this season -- with the projected loss coming to Ohio State at the end of the season. The FPI gives the Wolverines a 7.4% chance to win out and beat the Buckeyes. With the analytics thinking Michigan will lose to OSU, the Wolverines only have a 1.1% chance to win the Big Ten.

The Wolverines' Playoff chances dropped after the tight win over Purdue. Michigan now has just a 13.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Last week, the Wolverines had a 14.3% chance.

Wolverines enter their bye week at a great time

As mentioned above -- injuries are mounting. Justice Haynes will be out longer than many hoped, and the Wolverines were without three top linebackers last game. Both Cole Sullivan and Jimmy Rolder were out prior to the game, and then Jaishawn Barham was injured after the first play.

Michigan was also without veteran Rod Moore -- who continues to battle injuries. Michigan hopes to get its team healthy this week for a big stretch run to end the season. The Wolverines could still accomplish all of their goals, but three wins to finish the season is a must.

This article first appeared on Michigan Wolverines on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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